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Current and future distribution of the deciduous shrub Hydrangea macrophylla in China estimated by MaxEnt

Climate change has a significant impact on the growth and distribution of vegetation worldwide. Hydrangea macrophylla is widely distributed and considered a model species for studying the distribution and responses of shrub plants under climate change. These results can inform decision‐making regard...

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Autores principales: Yan, Xingyue, Wang, Shuchen, Duan, Yu, Han, Jing, Huang, Donghua, Zhou, Jian
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8601876/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34824814
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8288
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author Yan, Xingyue
Wang, Shuchen
Duan, Yu
Han, Jing
Huang, Donghua
Zhou, Jian
author_facet Yan, Xingyue
Wang, Shuchen
Duan, Yu
Han, Jing
Huang, Donghua
Zhou, Jian
author_sort Yan, Xingyue
collection PubMed
description Climate change has a significant impact on the growth and distribution of vegetation worldwide. Hydrangea macrophylla is widely distributed and considered a model species for studying the distribution and responses of shrub plants under climate change. These results can inform decision‐making regarding shrub plant protection, management, and introduction of germplasm resources, and are of great importance for formulating ecological countermeasures to climate change in the future. We used the maximum entropy model to predict the change, scope expansion/reduction, centroid movement, and dominant climate factors that restrict the growth and distribution of H. macrophylla in China under current and future climate change scenarios. It was found that both precipitation and temperature affect the distribution of suitable habitat for H. macrophylla. Akaike information criterion (AICc) was used to select the feature combination (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM). After the establishment of the optimal model (FC = QP, RM = 0.5), the complexity and over‐fitting degree of the model were low (delta AICc = 0, omission rate = 0.026, difference between training and testing area under the curve values = 0.0009), indicating that it had high accuracy in predicting the potential geographical distribution of H. macrophylla (area under the curve = 0.979). Overall, from the current period to future, the potential suitable habitat of this species in China expanded to the north. The greenhouse effect caused by an increase in CO(2) emissions would not only increase the area of high‐suitability habitat in Central China, but also expand the area of total suitable habitat in the north. Under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), the migration distance of the centroid was the longest (e.g., By 2070s, the centroids of total and highly suitable areas have shifted 186.15 km and 89.84 km, respectively).
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spelling pubmed-86018762021-11-24 Current and future distribution of the deciduous shrub Hydrangea macrophylla in China estimated by MaxEnt Yan, Xingyue Wang, Shuchen Duan, Yu Han, Jing Huang, Donghua Zhou, Jian Ecol Evol Research Articles Climate change has a significant impact on the growth and distribution of vegetation worldwide. Hydrangea macrophylla is widely distributed and considered a model species for studying the distribution and responses of shrub plants under climate change. These results can inform decision‐making regarding shrub plant protection, management, and introduction of germplasm resources, and are of great importance for formulating ecological countermeasures to climate change in the future. We used the maximum entropy model to predict the change, scope expansion/reduction, centroid movement, and dominant climate factors that restrict the growth and distribution of H. macrophylla in China under current and future climate change scenarios. It was found that both precipitation and temperature affect the distribution of suitable habitat for H. macrophylla. Akaike information criterion (AICc) was used to select the feature combination (FC) and the regularization multiplier (RM). After the establishment of the optimal model (FC = QP, RM = 0.5), the complexity and over‐fitting degree of the model were low (delta AICc = 0, omission rate = 0.026, difference between training and testing area under the curve values = 0.0009), indicating that it had high accuracy in predicting the potential geographical distribution of H. macrophylla (area under the curve = 0.979). Overall, from the current period to future, the potential suitable habitat of this species in China expanded to the north. The greenhouse effect caused by an increase in CO(2) emissions would not only increase the area of high‐suitability habitat in Central China, but also expand the area of total suitable habitat in the north. Under the maximum greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5), the migration distance of the centroid was the longest (e.g., By 2070s, the centroids of total and highly suitable areas have shifted 186.15 km and 89.84 km, respectively). John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021-11-03 /pmc/articles/PMC8601876/ /pubmed/34824814 http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8288 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Research Articles
Yan, Xingyue
Wang, Shuchen
Duan, Yu
Han, Jing
Huang, Donghua
Zhou, Jian
Current and future distribution of the deciduous shrub Hydrangea macrophylla in China estimated by MaxEnt
title Current and future distribution of the deciduous shrub Hydrangea macrophylla in China estimated by MaxEnt
title_full Current and future distribution of the deciduous shrub Hydrangea macrophylla in China estimated by MaxEnt
title_fullStr Current and future distribution of the deciduous shrub Hydrangea macrophylla in China estimated by MaxEnt
title_full_unstemmed Current and future distribution of the deciduous shrub Hydrangea macrophylla in China estimated by MaxEnt
title_short Current and future distribution of the deciduous shrub Hydrangea macrophylla in China estimated by MaxEnt
title_sort current and future distribution of the deciduous shrub hydrangea macrophylla in china estimated by maxent
topic Research Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8601876/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34824814
http://dx.doi.org/10.1002/ece3.8288
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