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Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups

Together with seasonal effects inducing outdoor or indoor activities, the gradual easing of prophylaxis caused second and third waves of SARS-CoV-2 to emerge in various countries. Interestingly, data indicate that the proportion of infections belonging to the elderly is particularly small during per...

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Autores principales: Steinegger, Benjamin, Arola-Fernández, Lluís, Granell, Clara, Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús, Arenas, Alex
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: The Royal Society 2022
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8607153/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34802272
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0119
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author Steinegger, Benjamin
Arola-Fernández, Lluís
Granell, Clara
Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús
Arenas, Alex
author_facet Steinegger, Benjamin
Arola-Fernández, Lluís
Granell, Clara
Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús
Arenas, Alex
author_sort Steinegger, Benjamin
collection PubMed
description Together with seasonal effects inducing outdoor or indoor activities, the gradual easing of prophylaxis caused second and third waves of SARS-CoV-2 to emerge in various countries. Interestingly, data indicate that the proportion of infections belonging to the elderly is particularly small during periods of low prevalence and continuously increases as case numbers increase. This effect leads to additional stress on the health care system during periods of high prevalence. Furthermore, infections peak with a slight delay of about a week among the elderly compared to the younger age groups. Here, we provide a mechanistic explanation for this phenomenology attributable to a heterogeneous prophylaxis induced by the age-specific severity of the disease. We model the dynamical adoption of prophylaxis through a two-strategy game and couple it with an SIR spreading model. Our results also indicate that the mixing of contacts among the age groups strongly determines the delay between their peaks in prevalence and the temporal variation in the distribution of cases. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance’.
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spelling pubmed-86071532021-12-06 Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups Steinegger, Benjamin Arola-Fernández, Lluís Granell, Clara Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús Arenas, Alex Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci Articles Together with seasonal effects inducing outdoor or indoor activities, the gradual easing of prophylaxis caused second and third waves of SARS-CoV-2 to emerge in various countries. Interestingly, data indicate that the proportion of infections belonging to the elderly is particularly small during periods of low prevalence and continuously increases as case numbers increase. This effect leads to additional stress on the health care system during periods of high prevalence. Furthermore, infections peak with a slight delay of about a week among the elderly compared to the younger age groups. Here, we provide a mechanistic explanation for this phenomenology attributable to a heterogeneous prophylaxis induced by the age-specific severity of the disease. We model the dynamical adoption of prophylaxis through a two-strategy game and couple it with an SIR spreading model. Our results also indicate that the mixing of contacts among the age groups strongly determines the delay between their peaks in prevalence and the temporal variation in the distribution of cases. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Data science approaches to infectious disease surveillance’. The Royal Society 2022-01-10 2021-11-22 /pmc/articles/PMC8607153/ /pubmed/34802272 http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0119 Text en © 2021 The Authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Published by the Royal Society under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Articles
Steinegger, Benjamin
Arola-Fernández, Lluís
Granell, Clara
Gómez-Gardeñes, Jesús
Arenas, Alex
Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups
title Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups
title_full Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups
title_fullStr Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups
title_full_unstemmed Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups
title_short Behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of COVID-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups
title_sort behavioural response to heterogeneous severity of covid-19 explains temporal variation of cases among different age groups
topic Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8607153/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34802272
http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2021.0119
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