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Getting hedging right: a small-state perspective

Hedging is one of the more commonly used but least studied concepts in international relations. This essay conceptualizes hedging and operationalizes it to the alignment choices of Southeast Asian smaller states. I define hedging as insurance-seeking behavior under situations of high uncertainty and...

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Autor principal: Kuik, Cheng-Chwee
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer Singapore 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8608573/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42533-021-00089-5
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author Kuik, Cheng-Chwee
author_facet Kuik, Cheng-Chwee
author_sort Kuik, Cheng-Chwee
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description Hedging is one of the more commonly used but least studied concepts in international relations. This essay conceptualizes hedging and operationalizes it to the alignment choices of Southeast Asian smaller states. I define hedging as insurance-seeking behavior under situations of high uncertainty and high stakes, where a rational state avoids taking sides and pursues opposite measures vis-à-vis competing powers to have a fallback position. I argue that while Washington and Beijing understandably dislike small-state hedging, they both overlook that it is the uncertainties stemming from their actions that push the weak to hedge. As uncertainties deepen, the non-great powers in Southeast Asia—as elsewhere—are compelled to hedge one way or another, even as the space to hedge is shrinking. Hedging is not a panacea and it entails its own problems. But acting out of their survival instincts, smaller states opt to hedge for as long as conditions compel. Unless US–China rivalry escalates into a direct conflict, or unless strategic certainty prevails, e.g., if Washington retreats or reduces its long-term commitment to Asia—raising certainty about the absence of a reliable aligned support—then states will stop hedging and start bandwagoning with China; or if Beijing’s actions directly threaten most actors on all major fronts—heightening certainty about an imminent, across-the-board danger—then hedging will be replaced by balancing against China. Short of that, hedging is likely to persist, making ambiguities a defining theme of our time.
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spelling pubmed-86085732021-11-23 Getting hedging right: a small-state perspective Kuik, Cheng-Chwee China Int Strategy Rev. Original Paper Hedging is one of the more commonly used but least studied concepts in international relations. This essay conceptualizes hedging and operationalizes it to the alignment choices of Southeast Asian smaller states. I define hedging as insurance-seeking behavior under situations of high uncertainty and high stakes, where a rational state avoids taking sides and pursues opposite measures vis-à-vis competing powers to have a fallback position. I argue that while Washington and Beijing understandably dislike small-state hedging, they both overlook that it is the uncertainties stemming from their actions that push the weak to hedge. As uncertainties deepen, the non-great powers in Southeast Asia—as elsewhere—are compelled to hedge one way or another, even as the space to hedge is shrinking. Hedging is not a panacea and it entails its own problems. But acting out of their survival instincts, smaller states opt to hedge for as long as conditions compel. Unless US–China rivalry escalates into a direct conflict, or unless strategic certainty prevails, e.g., if Washington retreats or reduces its long-term commitment to Asia—raising certainty about the absence of a reliable aligned support—then states will stop hedging and start bandwagoning with China; or if Beijing’s actions directly threaten most actors on all major fronts—heightening certainty about an imminent, across-the-board danger—then hedging will be replaced by balancing against China. Short of that, hedging is likely to persist, making ambiguities a defining theme of our time. Springer Singapore 2021-11-23 2021 /pmc/articles/PMC8608573/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42533-021-00089-5 Text en © The Institute of International and Strategic Studies (IISS), Peking University 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Paper
Kuik, Cheng-Chwee
Getting hedging right: a small-state perspective
title Getting hedging right: a small-state perspective
title_full Getting hedging right: a small-state perspective
title_fullStr Getting hedging right: a small-state perspective
title_full_unstemmed Getting hedging right: a small-state perspective
title_short Getting hedging right: a small-state perspective
title_sort getting hedging right: a small-state perspective
topic Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8608573/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s42533-021-00089-5
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