Histogram analysis based on multi-parameter MR imaging as a biomarker to predict lymph node metastasis in T3 stage rectal cancer

BACKGROUND: Preoperative identification of rectal cancer lymph node status is crucial for patient prognosis and treatment decisions. Rectal magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) plays an essential role in the preoperative staging of rectal cancer, but its ability to predict lymph node metastasis (LNM) is insufficient. This study explored the value of histogram features of primary lesions on multi-parametric MRI for predicting LNM of stage T3 rectal carcinoma. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 175 patients with stage T3 rectal cancer who underwent preoperative MRI, including diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) before surgery. 62 patients were included in the LNM group, and 113 patients were included in the non-LNM group. Texture features were calculated from histograms derived from T2 weighted imaging (T2WI), DWI, ADC, and T2 maps. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to screen independent predictors of LNM from clinical features, imaging features, and histogram features. Predictive performance was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Finally, a nomogram was established for predicting the risk of LNM. RESULTS: The clinical, imaging and histogram features were analyzed by stepwise logistic regression. Preoperative carbohydrate antigen 199 level (p = 0.009), MRN stage (p < 0.001), (T2WI)Kurtosis (p = 0.010), (DWI)Mode (p = 0.038), (DWI)CV (p = 0.038), and (T2-map)P5 (p = 0.007) were independent predictors of LNM. These factors were combined to form the best predictive model. The model reached an area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.860, with a sensitivity of 72.8% and a specificity of 85.5%. CONCLUSION: The histogram features on multi-parametric MRI of the primary tumor in rectal cancer were related to LN status, which is helpful for improving the ability to predict LNM of stage T3 rectal cancer. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12880-021-00706-0.