Development of glaucoma predictive model and risk factors assessment based on supervised models

OBJECTIVES: To develop and to propose a machine learning model for predicting glaucoma and identifying its risk factors. METHOD: Data analysis pipeline is designed for this study based on Cross-Industry Standard Process for Data Mining (CRISP-DM) methodology. The main steps of the pipeline include data sampling, preprocessing, classification and evaluation and validation. Data sampling for providing the training dataset was performed with balanced sampling based on over-sampling and under-sampling methods. Data preprocessing steps were missing value imputation and normalization. For classification step, several machine learning models were designed for predicting glaucoma including Decision Trees (DTs), K-Nearest Neighbors (K-NN), Support Vector Machines (SVM), Random Forests (RFs), Extra Trees (ETs) and Bagging Ensemble methods. Moreover, in the classification step, a novel stacking ensemble model is designed and proposed using the superior classifiers. RESULTS: The data were from Shahroud Eye Cohort Study including demographic and ophthalmology data for 5190 participants aged 40-64 living in Shahroud, northeast Iran. The main variables considered in this dataset were 67 demographics, ophthalmologic, optometric, perimetry, and biometry features for 4561 people, including 4474 non-glaucoma participants and 87 glaucoma patients. Experimental results show that DTs and RFs trained based on under-sampling of the training dataset have superior performance for predicting glaucoma than the compared single classifiers and bagging ensemble methods with the average accuracy of 87.61 and 88.87, the sensitivity of 73.80 and 72.35, specificity of 87.88 and 89.10 and area under the curve (AUC) of 91.04 and 94.53, respectively. The proposed stacking ensemble has an average accuracy of 83.56, a sensitivity of 82.21, a specificity of 81.32, and an AUC of 88.54. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, a machine learning model is proposed and developed to predict glaucoma disease among persons aged 40-64. Top predictors in this study considered features for discriminating and predicting non-glaucoma persons from glaucoma patients include the number of the visual field detect on perimetry, vertical cup to disk ratio, white to white diameter, systolic blood pressure, pupil barycenter on Y coordinate, age, and axial length.