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Public efforts to reduce disease transmission implied from a spatial game
One approach to understand people’s efforts to reduce disease transmission, is to consider the effect of behaviour on case rates. In this paper we present a spatial infection-reducing game model of public behaviour, formally equivalent to a Hopfield neural network coupled to SIRS disease dynamics. B...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier B.V.
2022
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8612759/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34848918 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2021.126619 |
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author | Burridge, James Gnacik, Michał |
author_facet | Burridge, James Gnacik, Michał |
author_sort | Burridge, James |
collection | PubMed |
description | One approach to understand people’s efforts to reduce disease transmission, is to consider the effect of behaviour on case rates. In this paper we present a spatial infection-reducing game model of public behaviour, formally equivalent to a Hopfield neural network coupled to SIRS disease dynamics. Behavioural game parameters can be precisely calibrated to geographical time series of Covid-19 active case numbers, giving an implied spatial history of behaviour. This is used to investigate the effects of government intervention, quantify behaviour area by area, and measure the effect of wealth on behaviour. We also demonstrate how a delay in people’s perception of risk levels can induce behavioural instability, and oscillations in infection rates. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8612759 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2022 |
publisher | Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-86127592021-11-26 Public efforts to reduce disease transmission implied from a spatial game Burridge, James Gnacik, Michał Physica A Article One approach to understand people’s efforts to reduce disease transmission, is to consider the effect of behaviour on case rates. In this paper we present a spatial infection-reducing game model of public behaviour, formally equivalent to a Hopfield neural network coupled to SIRS disease dynamics. Behavioural game parameters can be precisely calibrated to geographical time series of Covid-19 active case numbers, giving an implied spatial history of behaviour. This is used to investigate the effects of government intervention, quantify behaviour area by area, and measure the effect of wealth on behaviour. We also demonstrate how a delay in people’s perception of risk levels can induce behavioural instability, and oscillations in infection rates. Elsevier B.V. 2022-03-01 2021-11-25 /pmc/articles/PMC8612759/ /pubmed/34848918 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2021.126619 Text en © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Article Burridge, James Gnacik, Michał Public efforts to reduce disease transmission implied from a spatial game |
title | Public efforts to reduce disease transmission implied from a spatial game |
title_full | Public efforts to reduce disease transmission implied from a spatial game |
title_fullStr | Public efforts to reduce disease transmission implied from a spatial game |
title_full_unstemmed | Public efforts to reduce disease transmission implied from a spatial game |
title_short | Public efforts to reduce disease transmission implied from a spatial game |
title_sort | public efforts to reduce disease transmission implied from a spatial game |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8612759/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34848918 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physa.2021.126619 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT burridgejames publiceffortstoreducediseasetransmissionimpliedfromaspatialgame AT gnacikmichał publiceffortstoreducediseasetransmissionimpliedfromaspatialgame |