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Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks
Recent studies have shown that hydro-climatic extremes have increased significantly in number and intensity in the last decades. In the Northern Hemisphere such events were often associated with long lasting persistent weather patterns. In 2018, hot and dry conditions prevailed for several months ov...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8613183/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34819545 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01808-z |
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author | Hoffmann, Peter Lehmann, Jascha Fallah, Bijan Hattermann, Fred F. |
author_facet | Hoffmann, Peter Lehmann, Jascha Fallah, Bijan Hattermann, Fred F. |
author_sort | Hoffmann, Peter |
collection | PubMed |
description | Recent studies have shown that hydro-climatic extremes have increased significantly in number and intensity in the last decades. In the Northern Hemisphere such events were often associated with long lasting persistent weather patterns. In 2018, hot and dry conditions prevailed for several months over Central Europe leading to record-breaking temperatures and severe harvest losses. The underlying circulation processes are still not fully understood and there is a need for improved methodologies to detect and quantify persistent weather conditions. Here, we propose a new method to detect, compare and quantify persistence through atmosphere similarity patterns by applying established image recognition methods to day to day atmospheric fields. We find that persistent weather patterns have increased in number and intensity over the last decades in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude summer, link this to hydro-climatic risks and evaluate the extreme summers of 2010 (Russian heat wave) and of 2018 (European drought). We further evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce long-term trend patterns of weather persistence and the result is a notable discrepancy to observed developments. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8613183 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-86131832021-11-26 Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks Hoffmann, Peter Lehmann, Jascha Fallah, Bijan Hattermann, Fred F. Sci Rep Article Recent studies have shown that hydro-climatic extremes have increased significantly in number and intensity in the last decades. In the Northern Hemisphere such events were often associated with long lasting persistent weather patterns. In 2018, hot and dry conditions prevailed for several months over Central Europe leading to record-breaking temperatures and severe harvest losses. The underlying circulation processes are still not fully understood and there is a need for improved methodologies to detect and quantify persistent weather conditions. Here, we propose a new method to detect, compare and quantify persistence through atmosphere similarity patterns by applying established image recognition methods to day to day atmospheric fields. We find that persistent weather patterns have increased in number and intensity over the last decades in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude summer, link this to hydro-climatic risks and evaluate the extreme summers of 2010 (Russian heat wave) and of 2018 (European drought). We further evaluate the ability of climate models to reproduce long-term trend patterns of weather persistence and the result is a notable discrepancy to observed developments. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-11-24 /pmc/articles/PMC8613183/ /pubmed/34819545 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01808-z Text en © The Author(s) 2021, corrected publication 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open AccessThis article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Hoffmann, Peter Lehmann, Jascha Fallah, Bijan Hattermann, Fred F. Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks |
title | Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks |
title_full | Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks |
title_fullStr | Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks |
title_full_unstemmed | Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks |
title_short | Atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks |
title_sort | atmosphere similarity patterns in boreal summer show an increase of persistent weather conditions connected to hydro-climatic risks |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8613183/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34819545 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-01808-z |
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