A nomogram to predict risk of lymph node metastasis in early gastric cancer

Lymph node (LN) metastasis is known as one of the most important prognostic factors for early gastric cancer (EGC) patients. Patients without LNM normally have better prognosis. However, there is no evaluation criteria to accurately assess the possibility of LN metastasis. Therefore, this study aims to establish an effective nomogram for prognosis prediction. In this study, 285 EGC patients from January 2010 to December 2015 were enrolled. Pearson’s Chi-Square (χ(2)) test (including continuity correction when appropriate) and logistics regression analyses was used to identify the risk factors for LN metastasis. The independent risk factors identified were then incorporated in a nomogram model. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) and calibration curve. LN metastasis occurred in 59 (20.7%) EGC patients. And most of these patients were submucosal cancers (48/59). Chi-square test indicated lymphovascular emboli, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), ulcer, tumor size, tumor infiltration and histological grade were the risk factors, and multivariate logistics analyses confirmed all these six factors were independent risk factors of LN metastasis, which were selected to construct the nomogram. The nomogram proved well calibrated and had good discriminative ability (C-index value: 0.842). The proposed nomogram could result in more-accurate risk prediction for EGC patients.