The impact of environmental regulations on export trade at provincial level in China: evidence from panel quantile regression

Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2008 to 2017, this paper constructs a quantile regression econometric model to analyze whether China’s environmental regulation has an impact on export trade and to verify whether the Porter hypothesis has been valid in China in recent years. The results show that in the short term, environmental regulations have a restraining effect on export trade, while in the long run, due to the existence of innovation efficiency, environmental regulations will change from having a restraining effect to a promoting effect on export trade. Strict environmental regulations will reduce the production cost of Chinese products, further improve the export competitiveness of Chinese enterprises, and promote export trade. The empirical results verify the conclusion that the Porter hypothesis is confirmed in China. The following three suggestions are proposed for China’s exports to promote the win–win of China’s green development and export trade: promote the realization of international and domestic double circulation, avoid becoming “pollution shelters” and support technological innovation in environmental protection industries.