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Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries

The paper explores the utility of real exchange rate misalignments from their equilibrium for identification of currency crises in the former Soviet Union countries. We estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 10 former Soviet Republics employing behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and natur...

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Autor principal: Dudzich, Viktar
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Palgrave Macmillan UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8613727/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34848923
http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41294-021-00178-9
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author Dudzich, Viktar
author_facet Dudzich, Viktar
author_sort Dudzich, Viktar
collection PubMed
description The paper explores the utility of real exchange rate misalignments from their equilibrium for identification of currency crises in the former Soviet Union countries. We estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 10 former Soviet Republics employing behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and natural real exchange rate (NATREX) concepts and pooled mean group estimator. Subsequently, we compare the estimated misalignments before, during and after the currency crisis episodes and regress the misalignments on crisis-related variables. The results indicate that the misalignments tended to increase before the crises and visibly reduced after, thus serving as potentially viable predictors of such events.
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spelling pubmed-86137272021-11-26 Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries Dudzich, Viktar Comp Econ Stud Article The paper explores the utility of real exchange rate misalignments from their equilibrium for identification of currency crises in the former Soviet Union countries. We estimate equilibrium exchange rates for 10 former Soviet Republics employing behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and natural real exchange rate (NATREX) concepts and pooled mean group estimator. Subsequently, we compare the estimated misalignments before, during and after the currency crisis episodes and regress the misalignments on crisis-related variables. The results indicate that the misalignments tended to increase before the crises and visibly reduced after, thus serving as potentially viable predictors of such events. Palgrave Macmillan UK 2021-11-25 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC8613727/ /pubmed/34848923 http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41294-021-00178-9 Text en © Association for Comparative Economic Studies 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Dudzich, Viktar
Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries
title Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries
title_full Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries
title_fullStr Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries
title_full_unstemmed Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries
title_short Real Exchange Rate Misalignments and Currency Crises in the Former Soviet Union Countries
title_sort real exchange rate misalignments and currency crises in the former soviet union countries
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8613727/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34848923
http://dx.doi.org/10.1057/s41294-021-00178-9
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