Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with primary bladder sarcoma: a SEER-based retrospective study

BACKGROUND: Primary bladder sarcoma (PBS) is a rare malignant tumor of the bladder with a poor prognosis, and its disease course is inadequately understood. Therefore, our study aimed to establish a prognostic model to determine individualized prognosis of patients with PBS. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Data of 866 patients with PBS, registered from 1973 to 2015, were extracted from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end result (SEER) database. The patients included were randomly split into a training (n = 608) and a validation set (n = 258). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were employed to identify the important independent prognostic factors. A nomogram was then established to predict overall survival (OS). Using calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic curves, concordance index (C-index), decision curve analysis (DCA), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), the performance of the nomogram was internally validated. We compared the nomogram with the TNM staging system. The application of the risk stratification system was tested using Kaplan–Meier survival analysis. RESULTS: Age at diagnosis, T-stage, N-stage, M-stage, and tumor size were identified as independent predictors of OS. C-index of the training cohort were 0.675, 0.670, 0.671 for 1-, 3- and 5-year OS, respectively. And that in the validation cohort were 0.701, 0.684, 0.679, respectively. Calibration curves also showed great prediction accuracy. In comparison with TNM staging system, improved net benefits in DCA, evaluated NRI and IDI were obtained. The risk stratification system can significantly distinguish the patients with different survival risk. CONCLUSION: A prognostic nomogram was developed and validated in the present study to predict the prognosis of the PBS patients. It may assist clinicians in evaluating the risk factors of patients and formulating an optimal individualized treatment strategy. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12894-021-00929-x.