Predicting opioid-induced oversedation in hospitalised patients: a multicentre observational study

OBJECTIVES: Opioid-induced respiratory depression (OIRD) and oversedation are rare but potentially devastating adverse events in hospitalised patients. We investigated which features predict an individual patient’s risk of OIRD or oversedation; and developed a risk stratification tool that can be used to aid point-of-care clinical decision-making. DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING: Twelve acute care hospitals in a large not-for-profit integrated delivery system. PARTICIPANTS: All inpatients ≥18 years admitted between 1 July 2016 and 30 June 2018 who received an opioid during their stay (163 190 unique hospitalisations). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was occurrence of sedation or respiratory depression severe enough that emergent reversal with naloxone was required, as determined from medical record review; if naloxone reversal was unsuccessful or if there was no evidence of hypoxic encephalopathy or death due to oversedation, it was not considered an oversedation event. RESULTS: Age, sex, body mass index, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, concurrent sedating medication, renal insufficiency, liver insufficiency, opioid naïvety, sleep apnoea and surgery were significantly associated with risk of oversedation. The strongest predictor was concurrent administration of another sedating medication (adjusted HR, 95% CI=3.88, 2.48 to 6.06); the most common such medications were benzodiazepines (29%), antidepressants (22%) and gamma-aminobutyric acid analogue (14.7%). The c-statistic for the final model was 0.755. The 24-point Oversedation Risk Criteria (ORC) score developed from the model stratifies patients as high (>20%, ≥21 points), moderate (11%–20%, 10–20 points) and low risk (≤10%, <10 points). CONCLUSIONS: The ORC risk score identifies patients at high risk for OIRD or oversedation from routinely collected data, enabling targeted monitoring for early detection and intervention. It can also be applied to preventive strategies—for example, clinical decision support offered when concurrent prescriptions for opioids and other sedating medications are entered that shows how the chosen combination impacts the patient’s risk.