The Impact of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Egyptian Livestock Production

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Egypt is one of the hottest countries on the planet, with significant warming predicted to occur over the course of this century. It has a substantial livestock population to feed its growing human population, but the hotter temperatures will constrain the production of ruminants in particular because of their high internal heat production during the digestion of fibrous material by micro-organisms. The net result will be the diminished availability of animal products per human member of the Egyptian population. Some products can be imported, but this is difficult for products with a short shelf life, such as milk. We use estimates of climate change, population growth and the impact of higher temperatures on cow productivity to predict that milk availability per person will decline from 61 kg/year in 2011 to 26 kg/year in 2064. We discuss the range of alternative options available to make up for diminished animal product availability per person as the century progresses. ABSTRACT: Egypt is one of the hottest countries in the world, and extreme climate events are becoming more frequent, which is consistent with the warming of the planet. The impact of this warming on ecosystems is severe, including on livestock production systems. Under Egyptian conditions, livestock already suffer heat stress periods in summer. The predicted increases in temperature as result of climate change will affect livestock production by reducing growth and milk production because of appetite suppression and conception rate reductions and will increase animal welfare concerns. In severe cases, these effects can result in death. We review the heat stress effects on livestock behaviour, reproduction, and production in the context of predicted climate change for Egypt over the course of this century and offer alternative scenarios to achieve food security for a growing human population. As an example, we combine predictions for reduced milk production during heat stress and human population trajectories to predict that milk availability per person will decline from 61 kg/year in 2011 to 26 kg/year in 2064. Mitigation strategies are discussed and include the substitution of animal-based foods for plant-based foods and laboratory-grown animal products.