Hatching Success Rather Than Temperature-Dependent Sex Determination as the Main Driver of Olive Ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea) Nesting Activity in the Pacific Coast of Central America

SIMPLE SUMMARY: In marine turtles, sex is determined during a precise period during incubation: males are produced at lower temperatures and females at higher temperatures, a phenomenon called temperature-dependent sex determination. Most predictions about the long-term persistence of sea turtle populations in the face of climate change have focused on the effect of incubation temperature on sex ratios. In Central America, the alternations in dark sand beaches (hotter sand) and light sand beaches (cooler sand) are observed. Due to the higher production of females at high temperatures and the natal homing phenomenon in marine turtles, the largest proportion of nests on dark sand beaches was expected. However, the inverse was observed. We hypothesize that high beach temperatures, being seen in darker sand, increased female-biased primary sex ratios but reduced the output of female hatchlings due to embryo thermal lethality at high temperature. Our study reveals that when we think about sea turtle population dynamics, we should consider a variety of factors and not only sex ratio. ABSTRACT: In marine turtles, sex is determined during a precise period during incubation: males are produced at lower temperatures and females at higher temperatures, a phenomenon called temperature-dependent sex determination. Nest temperature depends on many factors, including solar radiation. Albedo is the measure of the proportion of reflected solar radiation, and in terms of sand color, black sand absorbs the most energy, while white sand reflects more solar radiation. Based on this observation, darker sand beaches with higher temperatures should produce more females. As marine turtles show a high degree of philopatry, including natal homing, dark beaches should also produce more female hatchlings that return to nest when mature. When sand color is heterogeneous in a region, we hypothesize that darker beaches would have the most nests. Nevertheless, the high incubation temperature on beaches with a low albedo may result in low hatching success. Using Google Earth images and the SWOT database of nesting olive ridleys (Lepidochelys olivacea) in the Pacific coast of Mexico and Central America, we modeled sand color and nesting activity to test the hypothesis that darker beaches host larger concentrations of females because of feminization on darker beaches and female philopatry. We found the opposite result: the lower hatching success at beaches with a lower albedo could be the main driver of nesting activity heterogeneity for olive ridleys in Central America.