Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on Spatial Aggregation of Giant Pandas and Sympatric Species in a Mountainous Landscape

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Climate change has been regarded as one of the major threats to biodiversity by altering habitats and food sources for wildlife as well as the function of ecosystems. The giant panda is an endangered endemic species in China and a flagship species of the world’s biodiversity conservation. Previous studies mostly focused on the effect of climate change on the giant panda itself. Few studies have addressed potential niche overlapping and interspecific competition between giant pandas and sympatric competitive species under future climate change. By assessing the spatial overlapping between giant pandas and sympatric competitive animals changes under future climate conditions in the Qinling Mountains, we found that the distribution areas of giant pandas and sympatric species would decrease remarkably under future climate changes. The shifting of the spatial aggregation between giant pandas and sympatric species vary under different climate change scenarios. New protected areas may need to be planned in order to maintain suitable habitats able to promote the survival of the species to climate changes. ABSTRACT: Understanding how climate change alters the spatial aggregation of sympatric species is important for biodiversity conservation. Previous studies usually focused on spatial shifting of species but paid little attention to changes in interspecific competitions under climate change. In this study, we evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the spatial aggregation of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and three sympatric competitive species (i.e., black bears (Ursus thibetanus), golden takins (Budorcas taxicolor), and wild boars (Sus scrofa)) in the Qinling Mountains, China. We employed an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach to map the current spatial distributions of giant pandas and sympatric animals and projected them to future climate scenarios in 2050s and 2070s. We then examined the range overlapping and niche similarities of these species under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that the distribution areas of giant pandas and sympatric species would decrease remarkably under future climate changes. The shifting directions of the overlapping between giant pandas and sympatric species vary under different climate change scenarios. In conclusion, future climate change greatly shapes the spatial overlapping pattern of giant pandas and sympatric species in the Qinling Mountains, while interspecific competition would be intensified under both mild and worst-case climate change scenarios.