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Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations

BACKGROUND: We examined school reopening policies amidst ongoing transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals ≥12 years. METHODS: We collected data on social contacts among school-aged children in the California Bay Area and developed an indivi...

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Autores principales: Head, Jennifer R., Andrejko, Kristin L., Remais, Justin V.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8614621/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34849504
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2021.100133
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author Head, Jennifer R.
Andrejko, Kristin L.
Remais, Justin V.
author_facet Head, Jennifer R.
Andrejko, Kristin L.
Remais, Justin V.
author_sort Head, Jennifer R.
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: We examined school reopening policies amidst ongoing transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals ≥12 years. METHODS: We collected data on social contacts among school-aged children in the California Bay Area and developed an individual-based transmission model to simulate transmission of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in schools. We evaluated the additional infections in students and teachers/staff resulting over a 128-day semester from in-school instruction compared to remote instruction when various NPIs (mask use, cohorts, and weekly testing of students/teachers) were implemented, across various community-wide vaccination coverages (50%, 60%, 70%), and student (≥12 years) and teacher/staff vaccination coverages (50% - 95%). FINDINGS: At 70% vaccination coverage, universal masking reduced infections by >57% among students. Masking plus 70% vaccination coverage enabled achievement of <50 excess cases per 1,000 students/teachers, but stricter risk tolerances, such as <25 excess infections per 1,000 students/teachers, required a cohort approach in elementary and middle school populations. In the absence of NPIs, increasing the vaccination coverage of community members from 50% to 70% or elementary teachers from 70% to 95% reduced the excess rate of infection among elementary school students attributable to school transmission by 24% and 37%, respectively. INTERPRETATIONS: Amidst Delta variant circulation, we found that schools are not inherently low risk, yet can be made so with high community vaccination coverages and masking. Vaccination of adults protects unvaccinated children. FUNDING: National Science Foundation grant no. 2032210; National Institutes of Health grant nos. R01AI125842 and R01AI148336; MIDAS Coordination Center (MIDASSUP2020-4).
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spelling pubmed-86146212021-11-26 Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations Head, Jennifer R. Andrejko, Kristin L. Remais, Justin V. Lancet Reg Health Am Articles BACKGROUND: We examined school reopening policies amidst ongoing transmission of the highly transmissible Delta variant, accounting for vaccination among individuals ≥12 years. METHODS: We collected data on social contacts among school-aged children in the California Bay Area and developed an individual-based transmission model to simulate transmission of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 in schools. We evaluated the additional infections in students and teachers/staff resulting over a 128-day semester from in-school instruction compared to remote instruction when various NPIs (mask use, cohorts, and weekly testing of students/teachers) were implemented, across various community-wide vaccination coverages (50%, 60%, 70%), and student (≥12 years) and teacher/staff vaccination coverages (50% - 95%). FINDINGS: At 70% vaccination coverage, universal masking reduced infections by >57% among students. Masking plus 70% vaccination coverage enabled achievement of <50 excess cases per 1,000 students/teachers, but stricter risk tolerances, such as <25 excess infections per 1,000 students/teachers, required a cohort approach in elementary and middle school populations. In the absence of NPIs, increasing the vaccination coverage of community members from 50% to 70% or elementary teachers from 70% to 95% reduced the excess rate of infection among elementary school students attributable to school transmission by 24% and 37%, respectively. INTERPRETATIONS: Amidst Delta variant circulation, we found that schools are not inherently low risk, yet can be made so with high community vaccination coverages and masking. Vaccination of adults protects unvaccinated children. FUNDING: National Science Foundation grant no. 2032210; National Institutes of Health grant nos. R01AI125842 and R01AI148336; MIDAS Coordination Center (MIDASSUP2020-4). Elsevier 2021-11-25 /pmc/articles/PMC8614621/ /pubmed/34849504 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2021.100133 Text en © 2021 The Author(s) https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
spellingShingle Articles
Head, Jennifer R.
Andrejko, Kristin L.
Remais, Justin V.
Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations
title Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations
title_full Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations
title_fullStr Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations
title_full_unstemmed Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations
title_short Model-based assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated K-12 school populations
title_sort model-based assessment of sars-cov-2 delta variant transmission dynamics within partially vaccinated k-12 school populations
topic Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8614621/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34849504
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2021.100133
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