Performance Prediction Equation for 2000 m Youth Indoor Rowing Using a 100 m Maximal Test

SIMPLE SUMMARY: The 2000 m tests, usually applied in indoor rowing, during weeks of evaluation and selection of young rowing athletes, often discourage participation or are performed by athletes without a previously established strategy (i.e., execution strategy, according to an estimated performance expectation) which may underestimate the performance of young athletes. Thus, the mathematical model developed in this research can contribute to the selection of athletes in Olympic rowing by providing a low-cost tool with a significant level of reliability and performance prediction of 2000 m. Furthermore, the mathematical model could help to propose highly reliable assessment strategies following coaches. This model could be used as an alternative to traditional ways of evaluating training progression up to 2000 m, thus contributing to the strategic planning of the tests applied and the development of athletes. ABSTRACT: Background: The exhaustive series of tests undergone by young athletes of Olympic rowing prior to important competitions imply loads of physical stress that can ultimately impact on mood and motivation, with negative consequences for their training and performance. Thus, it is necessary to develop a tool that uses only the performance of short distances but is highly predictive, offering a time expectancy with high reliability. Such a test must use variables that are easy to collect with high practical applicability in the daily routine of coaches. Objective: The objective of the present study was to develop a mathematical model capable of predicting 2000 m rowing performance from a maximum effort 100 m indoor rowing ergometer (IRE) test in young rowers. Methods: The sample consisted of 12 male rowing athletes in the junior category (15.9 ± 1.0 years). A 100 m time trial was performed on the IRE, followed by a 2000 m time trial 24-h later. Results: The 2000 m mathematical model to predict performance in minutes based on the maximum 100 m test demonstrated a high correlation (r = 0.734; p = 0.006), strong reliability index (ICC: 0.978; IC95%: [0.960; 0.980]; p = 0.001) and was within usable agreement limits (Bland -Altman Agreement: −0.60 to 0.60; 95% CI [−0.65; 0.67]). Conclusion: The mathematical model developed to predict 2000 m performance is effective and has a statistically significant reliability index while being easy to implement with low cost.