Machine Learning for Recurrence Prediction of Gynecologic Cancers Using Lynch Syndrome-Related Screening Markers

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Recurrent patients with gynecologic cancer experience a difficult situation when using immune checkpoint inhibitors based on mismatch repair gene immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability. Six machine learning algorithms were used to create predictive models with seven prospective features (four MMR IHC [MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2], MSI, Age 60, and tumor size). The experimental results showed that the RF-based model performed best at predicting gynecologic cancer recurrence, with AUCs of 0.818 and 0.826 for the 5-fold cross-validation (CV) and 5-fold CV with 10 repetitions, respectively. This provides novel and baseline results of patients with recurrent gynecologic cancer using immune checkpoint inhibitors by using machine learning methods based on Lynch syndrome-related screening markers. ABSTRACT: To support the implementation of genome-based precision medicine, we developed machine learning models that predict the recurrence of patients with gynecologic cancer in using immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) based on clinical and pathologic characteristics, including Lynch syndrome-related screening markers such as immunohistochemistry (IHC) and microsatellite instability (MSI) tests. To accomplish our goal, we reviewed the patient demographics, clinical data, and pathological results from their medical records. Then we identified seven potential characteristics (four MMR IHC [MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2], MSI, Age 60, and tumor size). Following that, predictive models were built based on these variables using six machine learning algorithms: logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), gradient boosting (GB), and extreme gradient boosting (EGB) (XGBoost). The experimental results showed that the RF-based model performed best at predicting gynecologic cancer recurrence, with AUCs of 0.818 and 0.826 for the 5-fold cross-validation (CV) and 5-fold CV with 10 repetitions, respectively. This study provides novel and baseline results about predicting the recurrence of gynecologic cancer in patients using ICI by using machine learning methods based on Lynch syndrome-related screening markers.