Segmentation of intentions towards COVID-19 vaccine acceptance through political and health behaviour explanatory models

BACKGROUND: Management of the COVID-19 pandemic has been plagued by an online ‘infodemic’, not least on the topic of vaccine safety. Failure to vaccinate is often addressed with corrective, factually based information. However, this may be overly simplistic. European vaccine hesitancy levels correlate closely with popularity of populist parties while scientific populism refers specifically to populist distrust in scientific expertise. AIMS AND METHOD: Combining an evaluation of risk through the health belief model and the cognitive constructs from the theory of planned behaviour, with the influence of populist statements, anticipated regret, trust, and past healthcare behaviour, an online survey explored the components of vaccine decisions amongst a demographically representative Irish adult sample (N = 1995). RESULTS: The regression model accounted for a large proportion of variance amongst the total sample. A primary set of influences suggests a considered risk evaluative decision-making approach while a second tier of weaker influences incorporates a broader set of values beyond cost–benefit analysis. Six ideological subsets were identified through K-means analysis. Segments were differentiated by subjective norms attitudes (particularly around social media), populist political attitudes, self-efficacy, perceptions of COVID-19 severity, and susceptibility to the condition. CONCLUSIONS: While the ‘right thing to do’ is clear when viewed through a lens of scientific expert advice, this is precisely the paradigm which populist movement rejects. Segmentations, such as the outputs from this study, validate the importance of proactively engaging with diverse communities both on and offline and afford a framework for developing and evaluating more refined, targeted, policies and interventions.