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The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves

Emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains continue to generate difficulties for authorities and health care professionals worldwide due to enhanced transmissibility and/or immune response evasion. The appearance of the Alpha and Delta strains has been associated with substantial increases in the number of COVID-1...

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Autores principales: Hohan, Robert, Milu, Petre, Paraschiv, Simona, Casangiu, Corina, Tudor, Andreea, Vlaicu, Ovidiu, Banica, Leontina, Surleac, Marius, Florea, Dragos, Otelea, Dan
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8622441/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34832619
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10111464
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author Hohan, Robert
Milu, Petre
Paraschiv, Simona
Casangiu, Corina
Tudor, Andreea
Vlaicu, Ovidiu
Banica, Leontina
Surleac, Marius
Florea, Dragos
Otelea, Dan
author_facet Hohan, Robert
Milu, Petre
Paraschiv, Simona
Casangiu, Corina
Tudor, Andreea
Vlaicu, Ovidiu
Banica, Leontina
Surleac, Marius
Florea, Dragos
Otelea, Dan
author_sort Hohan, Robert
collection PubMed
description Emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains continue to generate difficulties for authorities and health care professionals worldwide due to enhanced transmissibility and/or immune response evasion. The appearance of the Alpha and Delta strains has been associated with substantial increases in the number of COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) continues to be the gold standard for molecular surveillance of the pandemics but other assays such as mutation genotyping can be used to reduce costs and allocated time. This study investigates the efficiency of mutation screening tests compared to WGS and their predictive value to anticipate future waves. A very high degree of fidelity for this type of assay was found, regardless of the method used. The positive predictive value (PPV) of 4/5 markers was over 95% for the detection of Alpha and Delta variants. By estimating the prevalence of the Alpha and Delta strains using genotyping assays and fitting the data to a mathematical model, a five week period between the point of exponential growth of variant prevalence and a drastic increase in case numbers was found. For that reason, raising awareness about the efficacy of mutation screening could help authorities adopt better measures in the future.
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spelling pubmed-86224412021-11-27 The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves Hohan, Robert Milu, Petre Paraschiv, Simona Casangiu, Corina Tudor, Andreea Vlaicu, Ovidiu Banica, Leontina Surleac, Marius Florea, Dragos Otelea, Dan Pathogens Communication Emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains continue to generate difficulties for authorities and health care professionals worldwide due to enhanced transmissibility and/or immune response evasion. The appearance of the Alpha and Delta strains has been associated with substantial increases in the number of COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) continues to be the gold standard for molecular surveillance of the pandemics but other assays such as mutation genotyping can be used to reduce costs and allocated time. This study investigates the efficiency of mutation screening tests compared to WGS and their predictive value to anticipate future waves. A very high degree of fidelity for this type of assay was found, regardless of the method used. The positive predictive value (PPV) of 4/5 markers was over 95% for the detection of Alpha and Delta variants. By estimating the prevalence of the Alpha and Delta strains using genotyping assays and fitting the data to a mathematical model, a five week period between the point of exponential growth of variant prevalence and a drastic increase in case numbers was found. For that reason, raising awareness about the efficacy of mutation screening could help authorities adopt better measures in the future. MDPI 2021-11-11 /pmc/articles/PMC8622441/ /pubmed/34832619 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10111464 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Communication
Hohan, Robert
Milu, Petre
Paraschiv, Simona
Casangiu, Corina
Tudor, Andreea
Vlaicu, Ovidiu
Banica, Leontina
Surleac, Marius
Florea, Dragos
Otelea, Dan
The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
title The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
title_full The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
title_fullStr The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
title_full_unstemmed The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
title_short The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
title_sort predictive value of mutation screening for anticipating covid-19 waves
topic Communication
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8622441/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34832619
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10111464
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