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The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves
Emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains continue to generate difficulties for authorities and health care professionals worldwide due to enhanced transmissibility and/or immune response evasion. The appearance of the Alpha and Delta strains has been associated with substantial increases in the number of COVID-1...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8622441/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34832619 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10111464 |
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author | Hohan, Robert Milu, Petre Paraschiv, Simona Casangiu, Corina Tudor, Andreea Vlaicu, Ovidiu Banica, Leontina Surleac, Marius Florea, Dragos Otelea, Dan |
author_facet | Hohan, Robert Milu, Petre Paraschiv, Simona Casangiu, Corina Tudor, Andreea Vlaicu, Ovidiu Banica, Leontina Surleac, Marius Florea, Dragos Otelea, Dan |
author_sort | Hohan, Robert |
collection | PubMed |
description | Emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains continue to generate difficulties for authorities and health care professionals worldwide due to enhanced transmissibility and/or immune response evasion. The appearance of the Alpha and Delta strains has been associated with substantial increases in the number of COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) continues to be the gold standard for molecular surveillance of the pandemics but other assays such as mutation genotyping can be used to reduce costs and allocated time. This study investigates the efficiency of mutation screening tests compared to WGS and their predictive value to anticipate future waves. A very high degree of fidelity for this type of assay was found, regardless of the method used. The positive predictive value (PPV) of 4/5 markers was over 95% for the detection of Alpha and Delta variants. By estimating the prevalence of the Alpha and Delta strains using genotyping assays and fitting the data to a mathematical model, a five week period between the point of exponential growth of variant prevalence and a drastic increase in case numbers was found. For that reason, raising awareness about the efficacy of mutation screening could help authorities adopt better measures in the future. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8622441 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-86224412021-11-27 The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves Hohan, Robert Milu, Petre Paraschiv, Simona Casangiu, Corina Tudor, Andreea Vlaicu, Ovidiu Banica, Leontina Surleac, Marius Florea, Dragos Otelea, Dan Pathogens Communication Emerging SARS-CoV-2 strains continue to generate difficulties for authorities and health care professionals worldwide due to enhanced transmissibility and/or immune response evasion. The appearance of the Alpha and Delta strains has been associated with substantial increases in the number of COVID-19 cases and associated deaths. Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) continues to be the gold standard for molecular surveillance of the pandemics but other assays such as mutation genotyping can be used to reduce costs and allocated time. This study investigates the efficiency of mutation screening tests compared to WGS and their predictive value to anticipate future waves. A very high degree of fidelity for this type of assay was found, regardless of the method used. The positive predictive value (PPV) of 4/5 markers was over 95% for the detection of Alpha and Delta variants. By estimating the prevalence of the Alpha and Delta strains using genotyping assays and fitting the data to a mathematical model, a five week period between the point of exponential growth of variant prevalence and a drastic increase in case numbers was found. For that reason, raising awareness about the efficacy of mutation screening could help authorities adopt better measures in the future. MDPI 2021-11-11 /pmc/articles/PMC8622441/ /pubmed/34832619 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10111464 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Communication Hohan, Robert Milu, Petre Paraschiv, Simona Casangiu, Corina Tudor, Andreea Vlaicu, Ovidiu Banica, Leontina Surleac, Marius Florea, Dragos Otelea, Dan The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves |
title | The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves |
title_full | The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves |
title_fullStr | The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves |
title_full_unstemmed | The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves |
title_short | The Predictive Value of Mutation Screening for Anticipating COVID-19 Waves |
title_sort | predictive value of mutation screening for anticipating covid-19 waves |
topic | Communication |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8622441/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34832619 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/pathogens10111464 |
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