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Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles

Pneumonia is the main cause of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to perform an extensive characterization of clinical, laboratory, and cytokine profiles in order to identify poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective and consecutive study involving 108 COVID-19 patien...

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Autores principales: Gorgojo-Galindo, Óscar, Martín-Fernández, Marta, Peñarrubia-Ponce, María Jesús, Álvarez, Francisco Javier, Ortega-Loubon, Christian, Gonzalo-Benito, Hugo, Martínez-Paz, Pedro, Miramontes-González, José Pablo, Gómez-Sánchez, Esther, Poves-Álvarez, Rodrigo, Jorge-Monjas, Pablo, Tamayo, Eduardo, Heredia-Rodríguez, María, Tamayo-Velasco, Álvaro
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8622763/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34830714
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm10225431
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author Gorgojo-Galindo, Óscar
Martín-Fernández, Marta
Peñarrubia-Ponce, María Jesús
Álvarez, Francisco Javier
Ortega-Loubon, Christian
Gonzalo-Benito, Hugo
Martínez-Paz, Pedro
Miramontes-González, José Pablo
Gómez-Sánchez, Esther
Poves-Álvarez, Rodrigo
Jorge-Monjas, Pablo
Tamayo, Eduardo
Heredia-Rodríguez, María
Tamayo-Velasco, Álvaro
author_facet Gorgojo-Galindo, Óscar
Martín-Fernández, Marta
Peñarrubia-Ponce, María Jesús
Álvarez, Francisco Javier
Ortega-Loubon, Christian
Gonzalo-Benito, Hugo
Martínez-Paz, Pedro
Miramontes-González, José Pablo
Gómez-Sánchez, Esther
Poves-Álvarez, Rodrigo
Jorge-Monjas, Pablo
Tamayo, Eduardo
Heredia-Rodríguez, María
Tamayo-Velasco, Álvaro
author_sort Gorgojo-Galindo, Óscar
collection PubMed
description Pneumonia is the main cause of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to perform an extensive characterization of clinical, laboratory, and cytokine profiles in order to identify poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective and consecutive study involving 108 COVID-19 patients was conducted between March and April 2020 at Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid (Spain). Plasma samples from each patient were collected after emergency room admission. Forty-five serum cytokines were measured in duplicate, and clinical data were analyzed using SPPS version 25.0. Results: A multivariate predictive model showed high hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) plasma levels as the only cytokine related to intubation or death risk at hospital admission (OR = 7.38, 95%CI—(1.28–42.4), p = 0.025). There were no comorbidities included in the model except for the ABO blood group, in which the O blood group was associated with a 14-fold lower risk of a poor outcome. Other clinical variables were also included in the predictive model. The predictive model was internally validated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.94, a sensitivity of 91.7% and a specificity of 95%. The use of a bootstrapping method confirmed these results. Conclusions: A simple, robust, and quick predictive model, based on the ABO blood group, four common laboratory values, and one specific cytokine (HGF), could be used in order to predict poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients.
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spelling pubmed-86227632021-11-27 Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles Gorgojo-Galindo, Óscar Martín-Fernández, Marta Peñarrubia-Ponce, María Jesús Álvarez, Francisco Javier Ortega-Loubon, Christian Gonzalo-Benito, Hugo Martínez-Paz, Pedro Miramontes-González, José Pablo Gómez-Sánchez, Esther Poves-Álvarez, Rodrigo Jorge-Monjas, Pablo Tamayo, Eduardo Heredia-Rodríguez, María Tamayo-Velasco, Álvaro J Clin Med Article Pneumonia is the main cause of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to perform an extensive characterization of clinical, laboratory, and cytokine profiles in order to identify poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective and consecutive study involving 108 COVID-19 patients was conducted between March and April 2020 at Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid (Spain). Plasma samples from each patient were collected after emergency room admission. Forty-five serum cytokines were measured in duplicate, and clinical data were analyzed using SPPS version 25.0. Results: A multivariate predictive model showed high hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) plasma levels as the only cytokine related to intubation or death risk at hospital admission (OR = 7.38, 95%CI—(1.28–42.4), p = 0.025). There were no comorbidities included in the model except for the ABO blood group, in which the O blood group was associated with a 14-fold lower risk of a poor outcome. Other clinical variables were also included in the predictive model. The predictive model was internally validated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.94, a sensitivity of 91.7% and a specificity of 95%. The use of a bootstrapping method confirmed these results. Conclusions: A simple, robust, and quick predictive model, based on the ABO blood group, four common laboratory values, and one specific cytokine (HGF), could be used in order to predict poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. MDPI 2021-11-20 /pmc/articles/PMC8622763/ /pubmed/34830714 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm10225431 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Gorgojo-Galindo, Óscar
Martín-Fernández, Marta
Peñarrubia-Ponce, María Jesús
Álvarez, Francisco Javier
Ortega-Loubon, Christian
Gonzalo-Benito, Hugo
Martínez-Paz, Pedro
Miramontes-González, José Pablo
Gómez-Sánchez, Esther
Poves-Álvarez, Rodrigo
Jorge-Monjas, Pablo
Tamayo, Eduardo
Heredia-Rodríguez, María
Tamayo-Velasco, Álvaro
Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
title Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
title_full Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
title_fullStr Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
title_full_unstemmed Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
title_short Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
title_sort predictive modeling of poor outcome in severe covid-19: a single-center observational study based on clinical, cytokine and laboratory profiles
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8622763/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34830714
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm10225431
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