Cargando…
Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles
Pneumonia is the main cause of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to perform an extensive characterization of clinical, laboratory, and cytokine profiles in order to identify poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective and consecutive study involving 108 COVID-19 patien...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
---|---|
Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
MDPI
2021
|
Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8622763/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34830714 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm10225431 |
_version_ | 1784605770274308096 |
---|---|
author | Gorgojo-Galindo, Óscar Martín-Fernández, Marta Peñarrubia-Ponce, María Jesús Álvarez, Francisco Javier Ortega-Loubon, Christian Gonzalo-Benito, Hugo Martínez-Paz, Pedro Miramontes-González, José Pablo Gómez-Sánchez, Esther Poves-Álvarez, Rodrigo Jorge-Monjas, Pablo Tamayo, Eduardo Heredia-Rodríguez, María Tamayo-Velasco, Álvaro |
author_facet | Gorgojo-Galindo, Óscar Martín-Fernández, Marta Peñarrubia-Ponce, María Jesús Álvarez, Francisco Javier Ortega-Loubon, Christian Gonzalo-Benito, Hugo Martínez-Paz, Pedro Miramontes-González, José Pablo Gómez-Sánchez, Esther Poves-Álvarez, Rodrigo Jorge-Monjas, Pablo Tamayo, Eduardo Heredia-Rodríguez, María Tamayo-Velasco, Álvaro |
author_sort | Gorgojo-Galindo, Óscar |
collection | PubMed |
description | Pneumonia is the main cause of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to perform an extensive characterization of clinical, laboratory, and cytokine profiles in order to identify poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective and consecutive study involving 108 COVID-19 patients was conducted between March and April 2020 at Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid (Spain). Plasma samples from each patient were collected after emergency room admission. Forty-five serum cytokines were measured in duplicate, and clinical data were analyzed using SPPS version 25.0. Results: A multivariate predictive model showed high hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) plasma levels as the only cytokine related to intubation or death risk at hospital admission (OR = 7.38, 95%CI—(1.28–42.4), p = 0.025). There were no comorbidities included in the model except for the ABO blood group, in which the O blood group was associated with a 14-fold lower risk of a poor outcome. Other clinical variables were also included in the predictive model. The predictive model was internally validated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.94, a sensitivity of 91.7% and a specificity of 95%. The use of a bootstrapping method confirmed these results. Conclusions: A simple, robust, and quick predictive model, based on the ABO blood group, four common laboratory values, and one specific cytokine (HGF), could be used in order to predict poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8622763 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | MDPI |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-86227632021-11-27 Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles Gorgojo-Galindo, Óscar Martín-Fernández, Marta Peñarrubia-Ponce, María Jesús Álvarez, Francisco Javier Ortega-Loubon, Christian Gonzalo-Benito, Hugo Martínez-Paz, Pedro Miramontes-González, José Pablo Gómez-Sánchez, Esther Poves-Álvarez, Rodrigo Jorge-Monjas, Pablo Tamayo, Eduardo Heredia-Rodríguez, María Tamayo-Velasco, Álvaro J Clin Med Article Pneumonia is the main cause of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to perform an extensive characterization of clinical, laboratory, and cytokine profiles in order to identify poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective and consecutive study involving 108 COVID-19 patients was conducted between March and April 2020 at Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid (Spain). Plasma samples from each patient were collected after emergency room admission. Forty-five serum cytokines were measured in duplicate, and clinical data were analyzed using SPPS version 25.0. Results: A multivariate predictive model showed high hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) plasma levels as the only cytokine related to intubation or death risk at hospital admission (OR = 7.38, 95%CI—(1.28–42.4), p = 0.025). There were no comorbidities included in the model except for the ABO blood group, in which the O blood group was associated with a 14-fold lower risk of a poor outcome. Other clinical variables were also included in the predictive model. The predictive model was internally validated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.94, a sensitivity of 91.7% and a specificity of 95%. The use of a bootstrapping method confirmed these results. Conclusions: A simple, robust, and quick predictive model, based on the ABO blood group, four common laboratory values, and one specific cytokine (HGF), could be used in order to predict poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. MDPI 2021-11-20 /pmc/articles/PMC8622763/ /pubmed/34830714 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm10225431 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). |
spellingShingle | Article Gorgojo-Galindo, Óscar Martín-Fernández, Marta Peñarrubia-Ponce, María Jesús Álvarez, Francisco Javier Ortega-Loubon, Christian Gonzalo-Benito, Hugo Martínez-Paz, Pedro Miramontes-González, José Pablo Gómez-Sánchez, Esther Poves-Álvarez, Rodrigo Jorge-Monjas, Pablo Tamayo, Eduardo Heredia-Rodríguez, María Tamayo-Velasco, Álvaro Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles |
title | Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles |
title_full | Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles |
title_fullStr | Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles |
title_full_unstemmed | Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles |
title_short | Predictive Modeling of Poor Outcome in Severe COVID-19: A Single-Center Observational Study Based on Clinical, Cytokine and Laboratory Profiles |
title_sort | predictive modeling of poor outcome in severe covid-19: a single-center observational study based on clinical, cytokine and laboratory profiles |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8622763/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34830714 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/jcm10225431 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT gorgojogalindooscar predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT martinfernandezmarta predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT penarrubiaponcemariajesus predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT alvarezfranciscojavier predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT ortegaloubonchristian predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT gonzalobenitohugo predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT martinezpazpedro predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT miramontesgonzalezjosepablo predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT gomezsanchezesther predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT povesalvarezrodrigo predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT jorgemonjaspablo predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT tamayoeduardo predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT herediarodriguezmaria predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles AT tamayovelascoalvaro predictivemodelingofpooroutcomeinseverecovid19asinglecenterobservationalstudybasedonclinicalcytokineandlaboratoryprofiles |