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The effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the COVID-19 contagion in the UK, an observational and modelling study

Epidemiological models used to inform government policies aimed to reduce the contagion of COVID-19, assume that the reproduction number is reduced through Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) leading to physical distancing. Available data in the UK show an increase in physical distancing before...

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Autores principales: Galanis, Giorgos, Di Guilmi, Corrado, Bennett, David L., Baskozos, Georgios
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8629270/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34843552
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260364
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author Galanis, Giorgos
Di Guilmi, Corrado
Bennett, David L.
Baskozos, Georgios
author_facet Galanis, Giorgos
Di Guilmi, Corrado
Bennett, David L.
Baskozos, Georgios
author_sort Galanis, Giorgos
collection PubMed
description Epidemiological models used to inform government policies aimed to reduce the contagion of COVID-19, assume that the reproduction number is reduced through Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) leading to physical distancing. Available data in the UK show an increase in physical distancing before the NPIs were implemented and a fall soon after implementation. We aimed to estimate the effect of people’s behaviour on the epidemic curve and the effect of NPIs taking into account this behavioural component. We have estimated the effects of confirmed daily cases on physical distancing and we used this insight to design a behavioural SEIR model (BeSEIR), simulated different scenaria regarding NPIs and compared the results to the standard SEIR. Taking into account behavioural insights improves the description of the contagion dynamics of the epidemic significantly. The BeSEIR predictions regarding the number of infections without NPIs were several orders of magnitude less than the SEIR. However, the BeSEIR prediction showed that early measures would still have an important influence in the reduction of infections. The BeSEIR model shows that even with no intervention the percentage of the cumulative infections within a year will not be enough for the epidemic to resolve due to a herd immunity effect. On the other hand, a standard SEIR model significantly overestimates the effectiveness of measures. Without taking into account the behavioural component, the epidemic is predicted to be resolved much sooner than when taking it into account and the effectiveness of measures are significantly overestimated.
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spelling pubmed-86292702021-11-30 The effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the COVID-19 contagion in the UK, an observational and modelling study Galanis, Giorgos Di Guilmi, Corrado Bennett, David L. Baskozos, Georgios PLoS One Research Article Epidemiological models used to inform government policies aimed to reduce the contagion of COVID-19, assume that the reproduction number is reduced through Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs) leading to physical distancing. Available data in the UK show an increase in physical distancing before the NPIs were implemented and a fall soon after implementation. We aimed to estimate the effect of people’s behaviour on the epidemic curve and the effect of NPIs taking into account this behavioural component. We have estimated the effects of confirmed daily cases on physical distancing and we used this insight to design a behavioural SEIR model (BeSEIR), simulated different scenaria regarding NPIs and compared the results to the standard SEIR. Taking into account behavioural insights improves the description of the contagion dynamics of the epidemic significantly. The BeSEIR predictions regarding the number of infections without NPIs were several orders of magnitude less than the SEIR. However, the BeSEIR prediction showed that early measures would still have an important influence in the reduction of infections. The BeSEIR model shows that even with no intervention the percentage of the cumulative infections within a year will not be enough for the epidemic to resolve due to a herd immunity effect. On the other hand, a standard SEIR model significantly overestimates the effectiveness of measures. Without taking into account the behavioural component, the epidemic is predicted to be resolved much sooner than when taking it into account and the effectiveness of measures are significantly overestimated. Public Library of Science 2021-11-29 /pmc/articles/PMC8629270/ /pubmed/34843552 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260364 Text en © 2021 Galanis et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Galanis, Giorgos
Di Guilmi, Corrado
Bennett, David L.
Baskozos, Georgios
The effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the COVID-19 contagion in the UK, an observational and modelling study
title The effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the COVID-19 contagion in the UK, an observational and modelling study
title_full The effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the COVID-19 contagion in the UK, an observational and modelling study
title_fullStr The effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the COVID-19 contagion in the UK, an observational and modelling study
title_full_unstemmed The effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the COVID-19 contagion in the UK, an observational and modelling study
title_short The effectiveness of Non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the COVID-19 contagion in the UK, an observational and modelling study
title_sort effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions in reducing the covid-19 contagion in the uk, an observational and modelling study
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8629270/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34843552
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260364
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