Implication of energy expansion via the interaction of coal, industrialization, and agriculture towards climate goal: dual sustainability analysis

This current study seeks to investigate the policy implication of Turkey’s recent energy policies on its sustainable development. This study uses Turkey’s country-specific data and series of 1974 to 2018 for effective investigation and justification of the findings of this study with emphasis on both short-run and long-run implications. Three models were fitted to achieve study objectives to accommodate both environmental sustainability and economic impacts. Ecological footprint was considered better measure and used as proxy for the environment related model. In summary, with environment models, the selected series (per capita GDP, industrialization, agriculture, coal as a single energy use, and mixed energy use) except per capita GDP(2) were found positively and significantly related to ecological footprint in both short run and long run which translates to poor performance of Turkey’s environment. Also, using economic growth model, the selected series (industrialization, energy use, and agriculture) were all confirmed positively and significantly related to the economic growth (per capita GDP). Additionally, environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) was established for Turkey’s environment and economic performance. Furthermore, using Granger causality as robust check to these findings, a nexus was found among the series confirming the validity of the cointegration (short- and long-run policies) estimations and results. In congruence with literature and hypotheses, the results from cointegration estimation shows that the twin polices may be good to the economic performance but will spark off adverse effect on environment.