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New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected

As the Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the planet, evidence mounts that the region is experiencing unprecedented environmental change. The hydrological cycle is projected to intensify throughout the twenty-first century, with increased evaporation from expanding open water areas and...

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Autores principales: McCrystall, Michelle R., Stroeve, Julienne, Serreze, Mark, Forbes, Bruce C., Screen, James A.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Nature Publishing Group UK 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8633026/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34848697
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y
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author McCrystall, Michelle R.
Stroeve, Julienne
Serreze, Mark
Forbes, Bruce C.
Screen, James A.
author_facet McCrystall, Michelle R.
Stroeve, Julienne
Serreze, Mark
Forbes, Bruce C.
Screen, James A.
author_sort McCrystall, Michelle R.
collection PubMed
description As the Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the planet, evidence mounts that the region is experiencing unprecedented environmental change. The hydrological cycle is projected to intensify throughout the twenty-first century, with increased evaporation from expanding open water areas and more precipitation. The latest projections from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) point to more rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice loss by the year 2100 than in previous projections, and consequently, larger and faster changes in the hydrological cycle. Arctic precipitation (rainfall) increases more rapidly in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 due to greater global warming and poleward moisture transport, greater Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss and increased sensitivity of precipitation to Arctic warming. The transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of global warming, potentially under 1.5 °C, with profound climatic, ecosystem and socio-economic impacts.
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spelling pubmed-86330262021-12-15 New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected McCrystall, Michelle R. Stroeve, Julienne Serreze, Mark Forbes, Bruce C. Screen, James A. Nat Commun Article As the Arctic continues to warm faster than the rest of the planet, evidence mounts that the region is experiencing unprecedented environmental change. The hydrological cycle is projected to intensify throughout the twenty-first century, with increased evaporation from expanding open water areas and more precipitation. The latest projections from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) point to more rapid Arctic warming and sea-ice loss by the year 2100 than in previous projections, and consequently, larger and faster changes in the hydrological cycle. Arctic precipitation (rainfall) increases more rapidly in CMIP6 than in CMIP5 due to greater global warming and poleward moisture transport, greater Arctic amplification and sea-ice loss and increased sensitivity of precipitation to Arctic warming. The transition from a snow- to rain-dominated Arctic in the summer and autumn is projected to occur decades earlier and at a lower level of global warming, potentially under 1.5 °C, with profound climatic, ecosystem and socio-economic impacts. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-11-30 /pmc/articles/PMC8633026/ /pubmed/34848697 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y Text en © The Author(s) 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) .
spellingShingle Article
McCrystall, Michelle R.
Stroeve, Julienne
Serreze, Mark
Forbes, Bruce C.
Screen, James A.
New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected
title New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected
title_full New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected
title_fullStr New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected
title_full_unstemmed New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected
title_short New climate models reveal faster and larger increases in Arctic precipitation than previously projected
title_sort new climate models reveal faster and larger increases in arctic precipitation than previously projected
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8633026/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34848697
http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-27031-y
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