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Global supply chains in the pandemic()
We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth using a multi-sector quantitative framework implemented on 64 countries. We discipline the labor supply shock across sectors and countries using the fraction of work in the sector that can be done from hom...
Autores principales: | , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Elsevier B.V.
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8633421/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34866652 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103534 |
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author | Bonadio, Barthélémy Huo, Zhen Levchenko, Andrei A. Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya |
author_facet | Bonadio, Barthélémy Huo, Zhen Levchenko, Andrei A. Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya |
author_sort | Bonadio, Barthélémy |
collection | PubMed |
description | We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth using a multi-sector quantitative framework implemented on 64 countries. We discipline the labor supply shock across sectors and countries using the fraction of work in the sector that can be done from home, interacted with the stringency with which countries imposed lockdown measures. One quarter of the total model-implied real GDP decline is due to transmission through global supply chains. However, “renationalization” of global supply chains does not in general make countries more resilient to pandemic-induced contractions in labor supply. This is because eliminating reliance on foreign inputs increases reliance on the domestic inputs, which are also disrupted due to nationwide lockdowns. In fact, trade can insulate a country imposing a stringent lockdown from the pandemic-shock, as its foreign inputs are less disrupted than its domestic ones. Finally, unilateral lifting of the lockdowns in the largest economies can contribute as much as 2.5% to GDP growth in some of their smaller trade partners. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8633421 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Elsevier B.V. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-86334212021-12-01 Global supply chains in the pandemic() Bonadio, Barthélémy Huo, Zhen Levchenko, Andrei A. Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya J Int Econ Full Length Articles We study the role of global supply chains in the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on GDP growth using a multi-sector quantitative framework implemented on 64 countries. We discipline the labor supply shock across sectors and countries using the fraction of work in the sector that can be done from home, interacted with the stringency with which countries imposed lockdown measures. One quarter of the total model-implied real GDP decline is due to transmission through global supply chains. However, “renationalization” of global supply chains does not in general make countries more resilient to pandemic-induced contractions in labor supply. This is because eliminating reliance on foreign inputs increases reliance on the domestic inputs, which are also disrupted due to nationwide lockdowns. In fact, trade can insulate a country imposing a stringent lockdown from the pandemic-shock, as its foreign inputs are less disrupted than its domestic ones. Finally, unilateral lifting of the lockdowns in the largest economies can contribute as much as 2.5% to GDP growth in some of their smaller trade partners. Elsevier B.V. 2021-11 2021-09-22 /pmc/articles/PMC8633421/ /pubmed/34866652 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103534 Text en © 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active. |
spellingShingle | Full Length Articles Bonadio, Barthélémy Huo, Zhen Levchenko, Andrei A. Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya Global supply chains in the pandemic() |
title | Global supply chains in the pandemic() |
title_full | Global supply chains in the pandemic() |
title_fullStr | Global supply chains in the pandemic() |
title_full_unstemmed | Global supply chains in the pandemic() |
title_short | Global supply chains in the pandemic() |
title_sort | global supply chains in the pandemic() |
topic | Full Length Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8633421/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34866652 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2021.103534 |
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