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Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029
While ensuring employment opportunities is critical for global progress and stability, workers are now subject to several disruptive trends, including automation, rapid changes in technology and skill requirements, and transitions to low-carbon energy production. Yet, these trends seem almost insign...
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
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Public Library of Science
2021
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Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8635400/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34852022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260797 |
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author | Shutters, Shade T. |
author_facet | Shutters, Shade T. |
author_sort | Shutters, Shade T. |
collection | PubMed |
description | While ensuring employment opportunities is critical for global progress and stability, workers are now subject to several disruptive trends, including automation, rapid changes in technology and skill requirements, and transitions to low-carbon energy production. Yet, these trends seem almost insignificant compared to labor impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While much has been written about the pandemic’s short-term impacts, this study analyzes anticipated long-term impacts on the labor force of 2029 by comparing original 2029 labor projections to special COVID-adjusted projections recently published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Results show that future demand for nearly every type of labor skill and knowledge will increase, while the nature of work shifts from physical to more cognitive activities. Of the nearly three million jobs projected to disappear by 2029 due to COVID, over 91% are among workers without a bachelor’s degree. Among workers with a degree demand shifts primarily from business-related degrees to computer and STEM degrees. Results further show that the socialness of labor, which is important for both innovation and productivity, increases in many more industries than it decreases. Finally, COVID will likely accelerate the adoption of teleworking and slightly decrease the rate of workforce automation. These impacts, combined with a shift to more cognitive worker activities, will likely impact the nature of workforce health and safety with less focus on physical injuries and more on illnesses related to sedentary lifestyles. Overall, results suggest that future workers will need to engage more often in training and skill acquisition, requiring life-long learning and skill maintenance strategies. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8635400 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Public Library of Science |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-86354002021-12-02 Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029 Shutters, Shade T. PLoS One Research Article While ensuring employment opportunities is critical for global progress and stability, workers are now subject to several disruptive trends, including automation, rapid changes in technology and skill requirements, and transitions to low-carbon energy production. Yet, these trends seem almost insignificant compared to labor impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While much has been written about the pandemic’s short-term impacts, this study analyzes anticipated long-term impacts on the labor force of 2029 by comparing original 2029 labor projections to special COVID-adjusted projections recently published by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Results show that future demand for nearly every type of labor skill and knowledge will increase, while the nature of work shifts from physical to more cognitive activities. Of the nearly three million jobs projected to disappear by 2029 due to COVID, over 91% are among workers without a bachelor’s degree. Among workers with a degree demand shifts primarily from business-related degrees to computer and STEM degrees. Results further show that the socialness of labor, which is important for both innovation and productivity, increases in many more industries than it decreases. Finally, COVID will likely accelerate the adoption of teleworking and slightly decrease the rate of workforce automation. These impacts, combined with a shift to more cognitive worker activities, will likely impact the nature of workforce health and safety with less focus on physical injuries and more on illnesses related to sedentary lifestyles. Overall, results suggest that future workers will need to engage more often in training and skill acquisition, requiring life-long learning and skill maintenance strategies. Public Library of Science 2021-12-01 /pmc/articles/PMC8635400/ /pubmed/34852022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260797 Text en © 2021 Shade T. Shutters https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. |
spellingShingle | Research Article Shutters, Shade T. Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029 |
title | Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029 |
title_full | Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029 |
title_fullStr | Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029 |
title_full_unstemmed | Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029 |
title_short | Modelling long-term COVID-19 impacts on the U.S. workforce of 2029 |
title_sort | modelling long-term covid-19 impacts on the u.s. workforce of 2029 |
topic | Research Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8635400/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34852022 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260797 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT shuttersshadet modellinglongtermcovid19impactsontheusworkforceof2029 |