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Residents, Employees and Visitors: Effects of Three Types of Ambient Population on Theft on Weekdays and Weekends in Beijing, China

OBJECTIVES: The residential population of an area is an incomplete measure of the number of people that are momentarily present in the area, and of limited value as an indicator of exposure to the risk of crime. By accounting for the mobility of the population, measures of ambient population better...

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Autores principales: Song, Guangwen, Zhang, Yanji, Bernasco, Wim, Cai, Liang, Liu, Lin, Qin, Bo, Chen, Peng
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer US 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8638235/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34876778
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10940-021-09538-1
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author Song, Guangwen
Zhang, Yanji
Bernasco, Wim
Cai, Liang
Liu, Lin
Qin, Bo
Chen, Peng
author_facet Song, Guangwen
Zhang, Yanji
Bernasco, Wim
Cai, Liang
Liu, Lin
Qin, Bo
Chen, Peng
author_sort Song, Guangwen
collection PubMed
description OBJECTIVES: The residential population of an area is an incomplete measure of the number of people that are momentarily present in the area, and of limited value as an indicator of exposure to the risk of crime. By accounting for the mobility of the population, measures of ambient population better reflect the momentary presence of people. They have therefore become an alternative indicator of exposure to the risk of crime. This study considers the heterogeneity of the ambient population by distinguishing residents, employees and visitors as different categories, and explores their differential impact on thefts, both on weekdays and weekends. METHODS: We analyze one-year of police recorded thefts across 2104 1 km(2) grid cells in a central area in Beijing, China. Controlling for the effects of attractiveness, accessibility, and guardianship, we estimate a series of negative binominal models to investigate the differential effects of the three groups (residents, employees and visitors) in the ambient population on crime frequencies, both on weekdays and during weekends and holidays. RESULTS: Overall, larger ambient populations imply larger theft frequencies. The effect of visitors is stronger than the effects of residents and employees. The effects of residents and employees vary over the course of the week. On weekdays, the presence of residents is more important, while the reverse holds true during weekends and holidays. DISCUSSION: The effects of ambient population on thefts vary by its composition in terms of social roles. The larger role of visitors is presumably because in addition to being potential victims, residents and employees may also exercise informal social control. In addition, they spend more time indoors than where risk of theft is lower, while visitors might spend more time outdoors and may also bring about greater anonymity and weaken informal social control.
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spelling pubmed-86382352021-12-03 Residents, Employees and Visitors: Effects of Three Types of Ambient Population on Theft on Weekdays and Weekends in Beijing, China Song, Guangwen Zhang, Yanji Bernasco, Wim Cai, Liang Liu, Lin Qin, Bo Chen, Peng J Quant Criminol Original Paper OBJECTIVES: The residential population of an area is an incomplete measure of the number of people that are momentarily present in the area, and of limited value as an indicator of exposure to the risk of crime. By accounting for the mobility of the population, measures of ambient population better reflect the momentary presence of people. They have therefore become an alternative indicator of exposure to the risk of crime. This study considers the heterogeneity of the ambient population by distinguishing residents, employees and visitors as different categories, and explores their differential impact on thefts, both on weekdays and weekends. METHODS: We analyze one-year of police recorded thefts across 2104 1 km(2) grid cells in a central area in Beijing, China. Controlling for the effects of attractiveness, accessibility, and guardianship, we estimate a series of negative binominal models to investigate the differential effects of the three groups (residents, employees and visitors) in the ambient population on crime frequencies, both on weekdays and during weekends and holidays. RESULTS: Overall, larger ambient populations imply larger theft frequencies. The effect of visitors is stronger than the effects of residents and employees. The effects of residents and employees vary over the course of the week. On weekdays, the presence of residents is more important, while the reverse holds true during weekends and holidays. DISCUSSION: The effects of ambient population on thefts vary by its composition in terms of social roles. The larger role of visitors is presumably because in addition to being potential victims, residents and employees may also exercise informal social control. In addition, they spend more time indoors than where risk of theft is lower, while visitors might spend more time outdoors and may also bring about greater anonymity and weaken informal social control. Springer US 2021-12-02 2023 /pmc/articles/PMC8638235/ /pubmed/34876778 http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10940-021-09538-1 Text en © The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Original Paper
Song, Guangwen
Zhang, Yanji
Bernasco, Wim
Cai, Liang
Liu, Lin
Qin, Bo
Chen, Peng
Residents, Employees and Visitors: Effects of Three Types of Ambient Population on Theft on Weekdays and Weekends in Beijing, China
title Residents, Employees and Visitors: Effects of Three Types of Ambient Population on Theft on Weekdays and Weekends in Beijing, China
title_full Residents, Employees and Visitors: Effects of Three Types of Ambient Population on Theft on Weekdays and Weekends in Beijing, China
title_fullStr Residents, Employees and Visitors: Effects of Three Types of Ambient Population on Theft on Weekdays and Weekends in Beijing, China
title_full_unstemmed Residents, Employees and Visitors: Effects of Three Types of Ambient Population on Theft on Weekdays and Weekends in Beijing, China
title_short Residents, Employees and Visitors: Effects of Three Types of Ambient Population on Theft on Weekdays and Weekends in Beijing, China
title_sort residents, employees and visitors: effects of three types of ambient population on theft on weekdays and weekends in beijing, china
topic Original Paper
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8638235/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34876778
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10940-021-09538-1
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