Association between antibiotic pressure and the risk of colonization/infection by multidrug-resistant Acinetobacter baumannii complex: a time series analysis

INTRODUCTION: To analyze the association between antibiotic pressure and the risk of colonization/infection by Acinetobacter baumannii complex (AB), evaluating both the individual and general prescriptions of antibiotics. METHODS: This is an analytical, observational, case-control study on patients admitted to an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) during an AB outbreak (14 months). A five-year time series was constructed with the monthly incidence of cases of infection/colonization with strains of AB resistant to each antibiotic administered and with the monthly consumption of these antibiotics in the ICU. RESULTS: We identified 40 patients either infected (23) or colonized (17) by AB and 73 controls. We found an epidemic multidrug-resistant clone of AB in 75% of cases. Risk factors associated with the development of AB infection/colonization were: greater use of medical instruments, the presence of a tracheostomy, cutaneous ulcers, surgical lesions and prior antibiotic therapies. The regression analysis of individual use of antibiotics showed that prior treatment with ceftazidime, ceftriaxone, amoxicillin/clavulanate, imipenem, levofloxacin, linezolid, and vancomycin was a risk factor for acquiring AB. ARIMA models showed that the relationship were greatest and statistically significant when the treatment occurred between 6 months (ceftazidime) and 9 months (imipenem and levofloxacin) prior. CONCLUSIONS: The dynamic and aggregate relationship between the incidence of infection/colonization by multidrug-resistant strains of AB and prior antibiotic treatment was statistically significant for intervals of 6 to 9 months.