Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption

This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Güngör, Bekir Oray, Ertuğrul, H. Murat, Soytaş, Uğur
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Inc. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8640974/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34876759
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637
Descripción
Sumario:This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.

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