Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption

This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts...

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Autores principales: Güngör, Bekir Oray, Ertuğrul, H. Murat, Soytaş, Uğur
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Elsevier Inc. 2021
Materias:
Article
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8640974/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34876759
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637
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author Güngör, Bekir Oray
Ertuğrul, H. Murat
Soytaş, Uğur
author_facet Güngör, Bekir Oray
Ertuğrul, H. Murat
Soytaş, Uğur
author_sort Güngör, Bekir Oray
collection PubMed
description This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups.
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spelling pubmed-86409742021-12-03 Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption Güngör, Bekir Oray Ertuğrul, H. Murat Soytaş, Uğur Technol Forecast Soc Change Article This paper investigates the effects of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption by employing a unique data set of daily data covering the 2014-2020 period. Forecast performance of benchmark ARIMA models are evaluated for both before and after the outbreak. Even the best-fit model forecasts fail miserably after the Covid-19 outbreak. Adding volatility improves forecasts. Consumption volatility increases due to the outbreak. Policies targeting volatility can reduce adverse impacts of similar shocks on market participants, tax revenues, and vulnerable groups. Elsevier Inc. 2021-05 2021-01-27 /pmc/articles/PMC8640974/ /pubmed/34876759 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637 Text en © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.
spellingShingle Article
Güngör, Bekir Oray
Ertuğrul, H. Murat
Soytaş, Uğur
Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption
title Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption
title_full Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption
title_fullStr Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption
title_full_unstemmed Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption
title_short Impact of Covid-19 outbreak on Turkish gasoline consumption
title_sort impact of covid-19 outbreak on turkish gasoline consumption
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8640974/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34876759
http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120637
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