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The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait
Background: Many countries have succeeded in curbing the initial outbreak of COVID-19 by imposing strict public health control measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures in curbing the outbreak in developing countries. In this study, we seek to assess the imp...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8645687/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34881217 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.757419 |
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author | Al-Shammari, Abdullah A. Ali, Hamad Alahmad, Barrak Al-Refaei, Faisal H. Al-Sabah, Salman Jamal, Mohammad H. Alshukry, Abdullah Al-Duwairi, Qais Al-Mulla, Fahd |
author_facet | Al-Shammari, Abdullah A. Ali, Hamad Alahmad, Barrak Al-Refaei, Faisal H. Al-Sabah, Salman Jamal, Mohammad H. Alshukry, Abdullah Al-Duwairi, Qais Al-Mulla, Fahd |
author_sort | Al-Shammari, Abdullah A. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Background: Many countries have succeeded in curbing the initial outbreak of COVID-19 by imposing strict public health control measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures in curbing the outbreak in developing countries. In this study, we seek to assess the impact of various outbreak control measures in Kuwait to gain more insight into the outbreak progression and the associated healthcare burden. Methods: We use a SEIR mathematical model to simulate the first wave of the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19 in Kuwait with additional testing and hospitalization compartments. We calibrate our model by using a NBD observational framework for confirmed case and death counts. We simulate trajectories of model forecasts and assess the effectiveness of public health interventions by using maximum likelihood to estimate both the basic and effective reproduction numbers. Results: Our results indicate that the early strict control measures had the effect of delaying the intensity of the outbreak but were unsuccessful in reducing the effective reproduction number below 1. Forecasted model trajectories suggest a need to expand the healthcare system capacity to cope with the associated epidemic burden of such ineffectiveness. Conclusion: Strict public health interventions may not always lead to the same desired outcomes, particularly when population and demographic factors are not accounted for as in the case in some developing countries. Real-time dynamic modeling can provide an early assessment of the impact of such control measures as well as a forecasting tool to support outbreak surveillance and the associated healthcare expansion planning. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8645687 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-86456872021-12-07 The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait Al-Shammari, Abdullah A. Ali, Hamad Alahmad, Barrak Al-Refaei, Faisal H. Al-Sabah, Salman Jamal, Mohammad H. Alshukry, Abdullah Al-Duwairi, Qais Al-Mulla, Fahd Front Public Health Public Health Background: Many countries have succeeded in curbing the initial outbreak of COVID-19 by imposing strict public health control measures. However, little is known about the effectiveness of such control measures in curbing the outbreak in developing countries. In this study, we seek to assess the impact of various outbreak control measures in Kuwait to gain more insight into the outbreak progression and the associated healthcare burden. Methods: We use a SEIR mathematical model to simulate the first wave of the epidemic outbreak of COVID-19 in Kuwait with additional testing and hospitalization compartments. We calibrate our model by using a NBD observational framework for confirmed case and death counts. We simulate trajectories of model forecasts and assess the effectiveness of public health interventions by using maximum likelihood to estimate both the basic and effective reproduction numbers. Results: Our results indicate that the early strict control measures had the effect of delaying the intensity of the outbreak but were unsuccessful in reducing the effective reproduction number below 1. Forecasted model trajectories suggest a need to expand the healthcare system capacity to cope with the associated epidemic burden of such ineffectiveness. Conclusion: Strict public health interventions may not always lead to the same desired outcomes, particularly when population and demographic factors are not accounted for as in the case in some developing countries. Real-time dynamic modeling can provide an early assessment of the impact of such control measures as well as a forecasting tool to support outbreak surveillance and the associated healthcare expansion planning. Frontiers Media S.A. 2021-11-22 /pmc/articles/PMC8645687/ /pubmed/34881217 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.757419 Text en Copyright © 2021 Al-Shammari, Ali, Alahmad, Al-Refaei, Al-Sabah, Jamal, Alshukry, Al-Duwairi and Al-Mulla. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms. |
spellingShingle | Public Health Al-Shammari, Abdullah A. Ali, Hamad Alahmad, Barrak Al-Refaei, Faisal H. Al-Sabah, Salman Jamal, Mohammad H. Alshukry, Abdullah Al-Duwairi, Qais Al-Mulla, Fahd The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait |
title | The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait |
title_full | The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait |
title_fullStr | The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait |
title_full_unstemmed | The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait |
title_short | The Impact of Strict Public Health Measures on COVID-19 Transmission in Developing Countries: The Case of Kuwait |
title_sort | impact of strict public health measures on covid-19 transmission in developing countries: the case of kuwait |
topic | Public Health |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8645687/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34881217 http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2021.757419 |
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