Predicting acute respiratory distress syndrome in influenza pneumonia patients using delta mean platelet volume

BACKGROUND: Patients with influenza pneumonia are at high risk of rapid progression to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Mean platelet volume (MPV), which reflects platelet size, is considered to be a crucial inflammatory marker. The study aim was to investigate the role of delta mean platelet volume (delta MPV) in predicting ARDS in patients with influenza pneumonia. METHODS: This retrospective study was conducted in a tertiary care centre in southern Thailand. Adult patients diagnosed with influenza pneumonia were enrolled from January 2015 to December 2020. Demographic data, laboratory investigations including delta MPV (MPV on day 2 minus MPV on day 1), management records, and clinical outcomes were collected for analysis. The study population was divided into two groups according to the development of ARDS. RESULTS: During the study, 1240 patients with laboratory-confirmed influenza were screened and 212 pneumonia patients were enrolled. Fifty-six patients (26.4%) met the diagnostic criteria for ARDS during hospitalization. Delta MPV was significantly higher in the ARDS group compared to that in the non-ARDS group (1.0 fL vs 0.2 fL, p < 0.001). Multivariable logistic regression revealed that delta MPV is an independent predictor of ARDS (OR 17.37; 95% CI 6.5–46.4; p < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis indicated a cut-off value of 0.7 fL for delta MPV (sensitivity 80.36%, specificity 80.77%) to predict ARDS in patients with influenza pneumonia. CONCLUSIONS: Delta MPV strongly predicts ARDS in influenza pneumonia patients. Implementation of delta MPV may be useful in identifying at-risk patients who will require intensive care and ARDS prevention. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12890-021-01763-5.