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Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil

This article proposes a study of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread and the efficacy of public policies in Brazil. Using both aggregated (from large Internet companies) and fine-grained (from Departments of Motor Vehicles) mobility data sources, our work sheds light on the effect of mobility on the pandemi...

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Autores principales: Chagas, Eduarda T. C., Barros, Pedro H., Cardoso-Pereira, Isadora, Ponte, Igor V., Ximenes, Pablo, Figueiredo, Flávio, Murai, Fabricio, Couto da Silva, Ana Paula, Almeida, Jussara M., Loureiro, Antonio A. F., Ramos, Heitor S.
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Public Library of Science 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8651143/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34874978
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260610
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author Chagas, Eduarda T. C.
Barros, Pedro H.
Cardoso-Pereira, Isadora
Ponte, Igor V.
Ximenes, Pablo
Figueiredo, Flávio
Murai, Fabricio
Couto da Silva, Ana Paula
Almeida, Jussara M.
Loureiro, Antonio A. F.
Ramos, Heitor S.
author_facet Chagas, Eduarda T. C.
Barros, Pedro H.
Cardoso-Pereira, Isadora
Ponte, Igor V.
Ximenes, Pablo
Figueiredo, Flávio
Murai, Fabricio
Couto da Silva, Ana Paula
Almeida, Jussara M.
Loureiro, Antonio A. F.
Ramos, Heitor S.
author_sort Chagas, Eduarda T. C.
collection PubMed
description This article proposes a study of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread and the efficacy of public policies in Brazil. Using both aggregated (from large Internet companies) and fine-grained (from Departments of Motor Vehicles) mobility data sources, our work sheds light on the effect of mobility on the pandemic situation in the Brazilian territory. Our main contribution is to show how mobility data, particularly fine-grained ones, can offer valuable insights into virus propagation. For this, we propose a modification in the SENUR model to add mobility information, evaluating different data availability scenarios (different information granularities), and finally, we carry out simulations to evaluate possible public policies. In particular, we conduct a case study that shows, through simulations of hypothetical scenarios, that the contagion curve in several Brazilian cities could have been milder if the government had imposed mobility restrictions soon after reporting the first case. Our results also show that if the government had not taken any action and the only safety measure taken was the population’s voluntary isolation (out of fear), the time until the contagion peak for the first wave would have been postponed, but its value would more than double.
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spelling pubmed-86511432021-12-08 Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil Chagas, Eduarda T. C. Barros, Pedro H. Cardoso-Pereira, Isadora Ponte, Igor V. Ximenes, Pablo Figueiredo, Flávio Murai, Fabricio Couto da Silva, Ana Paula Almeida, Jussara M. Loureiro, Antonio A. F. Ramos, Heitor S. PLoS One Research Article This article proposes a study of the SARS-CoV-2 virus spread and the efficacy of public policies in Brazil. Using both aggregated (from large Internet companies) and fine-grained (from Departments of Motor Vehicles) mobility data sources, our work sheds light on the effect of mobility on the pandemic situation in the Brazilian territory. Our main contribution is to show how mobility data, particularly fine-grained ones, can offer valuable insights into virus propagation. For this, we propose a modification in the SENUR model to add mobility information, evaluating different data availability scenarios (different information granularities), and finally, we carry out simulations to evaluate possible public policies. In particular, we conduct a case study that shows, through simulations of hypothetical scenarios, that the contagion curve in several Brazilian cities could have been milder if the government had imposed mobility restrictions soon after reporting the first case. Our results also show that if the government had not taken any action and the only safety measure taken was the population’s voluntary isolation (out of fear), the time until the contagion peak for the first wave would have been postponed, but its value would more than double. Public Library of Science 2021-12-07 /pmc/articles/PMC8651143/ /pubmed/34874978 http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260610 Text en © 2021 Chagas et al https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) , which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Research Article
Chagas, Eduarda T. C.
Barros, Pedro H.
Cardoso-Pereira, Isadora
Ponte, Igor V.
Ximenes, Pablo
Figueiredo, Flávio
Murai, Fabricio
Couto da Silva, Ana Paula
Almeida, Jussara M.
Loureiro, Antonio A. F.
Ramos, Heitor S.
Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil
title Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil
title_full Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil
title_fullStr Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil
title_full_unstemmed Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil
title_short Effects of population mobility on the COVID-19 spread in Brazil
title_sort effects of population mobility on the covid-19 spread in brazil
topic Research Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8651143/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34874978
http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0260610
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