Numerosity Comparison, Estimation and Proportion Estimation Abilities May Predict Numeracy and Cognitive Reflection in Adults

This study explores whether and how different tasks associated with approximate number system (ANS) ability are related to numeracy and cognitive reflection in adults. We conducted an online experiment using a sample of 300 Japanese adults aged 20–39. Participants were given three ANS tasks (numerosity comparison, numerosity estimation, and proportion estimation) as well as Rasch-based numeracy scale and cognitive reflection test, and we tested the correlation among the measures of these tasks. We explored the hypothesis that the typical measures used to gauge ANS ability, numerosity comparison and numerosity estimation may mediate different cognitive mechanisms in adults. We also introduced a task measuring proportion estimation, added because such estimation requires numerosity perception and the ability to map symbolic numerals. Our findings suggest that there is a weak, but significant correlation among the three ANS-related tasks. Moreover, there is a significant relationship between each of these measures and the numeracy and CRT score, suggesting that the ANS-related ability may be associated with higher cognitive abilities such as numeracy and cognitive reflection. In addition, we found that performances on the numerosity and proportion estimation are more clearly related to CRT score than the numerosity comparison task.