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The sooner, the better: The economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID‐19 pandemic

This paper estimates the economic impact of the non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented by countries in Europe and Central Asia during the initial stages of the COVID‐19 pandemic. The analysis relies on daily electricity consumption, nitrogen dioxide emission and mobility records to trac...

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Autores principales: Demirgüç‐Kunt, Asli, Lokshin, Michael, Torre, Iván
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8653187/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12284
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author Demirgüç‐Kunt, Asli
Lokshin, Michael
Torre, Iván
author_facet Demirgüç‐Kunt, Asli
Lokshin, Michael
Torre, Iván
author_sort Demirgüç‐Kunt, Asli
collection PubMed
description This paper estimates the economic impact of the non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented by countries in Europe and Central Asia during the initial stages of the COVID‐19 pandemic. The analysis relies on daily electricity consumption, nitrogen dioxide emission and mobility records to trace the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic and calibrate these measures to estimate the magnitude of the economic impact. To address the potential endogeneity in the introduction of NPIs, we instrument their stringency by the extent of a country's social ties to China. The results suggest that the NPIs led to a decline of about 10% in economic activity across the region. On average, countries that implemented non‐pharmaceutical interventions in the early stages of the pandemic appear to have better short‐term economic outcomes and lower cumulative mortality, compared with countries that imposed non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the later stages of the pandemic. Moreover, there is evidence that COVID‐19 mortality at the peak of the local outbreak has been lower in countries that acted earlier. In this sense, the results suggest that the sooner non‐pharmaceutical interventions are implemented, the better are the economic and health outcomes.
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spelling pubmed-86531872021-12-08 The sooner, the better: The economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID‐19 pandemic Demirgüç‐Kunt, Asli Lokshin, Michael Torre, Iván Economics of Transition and Institutional Change Original Articles This paper estimates the economic impact of the non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) implemented by countries in Europe and Central Asia during the initial stages of the COVID‐19 pandemic. The analysis relies on daily electricity consumption, nitrogen dioxide emission and mobility records to trace the economic disruptions caused by the pandemic and calibrate these measures to estimate the magnitude of the economic impact. To address the potential endogeneity in the introduction of NPIs, we instrument their stringency by the extent of a country's social ties to China. The results suggest that the NPIs led to a decline of about 10% in economic activity across the region. On average, countries that implemented non‐pharmaceutical interventions in the early stages of the pandemic appear to have better short‐term economic outcomes and lower cumulative mortality, compared with countries that imposed non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the later stages of the pandemic. Moreover, there is evidence that COVID‐19 mortality at the peak of the local outbreak has been lower in countries that acted earlier. In this sense, the results suggest that the sooner non‐pharmaceutical interventions are implemented, the better are the economic and health outcomes. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021-08-22 2021-10 /pmc/articles/PMC8653187/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12284 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Economics of Transition and Institutional Change published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
spellingShingle Original Articles
Demirgüç‐Kunt, Asli
Lokshin, Michael
Torre, Iván
The sooner, the better: The economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID‐19 pandemic
title The sooner, the better: The economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID‐19 pandemic
title_full The sooner, the better: The economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID‐19 pandemic
title_fullStr The sooner, the better: The economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID‐19 pandemic
title_full_unstemmed The sooner, the better: The economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID‐19 pandemic
title_short The sooner, the better: The economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the COVID‐19 pandemic
title_sort sooner, the better: the economic impact of non‐pharmaceutical interventions during the early stage of the covid‐19 pandemic
topic Original Articles
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8653187/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ecot.12284
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