Media Exposure and the Risk of Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Following a Mass traumatic Event: An In-silico Experiment

Introduction: Following mass traumatic events, greater exposure to traditional media like television (TV) about the event is associated with higher burden of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). However, we know little about how social media exposure, combined with other media sources, shapes the population burden of PTSD following mass traumatic events. Materials and Methods: We built a microsimulation of 1,18,000 agents that was demographically comparable to the population of Parkland and Coral Springs, Florida that experienced the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in 2018. We parametrized the model using data from prior traumatic events and built an internal social network structure to facilitate the estimation of community PTSD prevalence following exposure to TV and social media coverage of the shooting. Results: Overall, PTSD prevalence in the community due to exposure to TV coverage of the shooting was 3.1%. Shifting the whole population's hours of TV watching to the lower half of the population distribution decreased PTSD prevalence to 1.3% while increasing TV watching to the upper half of the distribution increased the prevalence to 3.5%. Casual (i.e., viewing posts) social media use in addition to exposure to TV coverage increased PTSD prevalence to 3.4%; overall prevalence increased to 5.3% when agents shared videos related to the shooting on social media. Conclusion: This microsimulation shows that availability and exposure to media coverage of mass traumatic events, particularly as social media becomes more ubiquitous, has the potential to increase community PTSD prevalence following these events. Future research could fruitfully examine the mechanisms that might explain these associations and potential interventions that can mitigate the role of media in shaping the mental health of populations following traumatic events.