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Predicted Impact of the Lockdown Measure in Response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Greater Bangkok, Thailand, 2021

In mid-2021, Thailand faced a fourth wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) predominantly fueled by the Delta and Alpha variants. The number of cases and deaths rose exponentially, alongside a sharp increase in hospitalizations and intubated patients. The Thai Government then implemented a lock...

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Autores principales: Uansri, Sonvanee, Tuangratananon, Titiporn, Phaiyarom, Mathudara, Rajatanavin, Nattadhanai, Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong, Jaruwanno, Warisara
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: MDPI 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8657386/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34886542
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182312816
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author Uansri, Sonvanee
Tuangratananon, Titiporn
Phaiyarom, Mathudara
Rajatanavin, Nattadhanai
Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong
Jaruwanno, Warisara
author_facet Uansri, Sonvanee
Tuangratananon, Titiporn
Phaiyarom, Mathudara
Rajatanavin, Nattadhanai
Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong
Jaruwanno, Warisara
author_sort Uansri, Sonvanee
collection PubMed
description In mid-2021, Thailand faced a fourth wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) predominantly fueled by the Delta and Alpha variants. The number of cases and deaths rose exponentially, alongside a sharp increase in hospitalizations and intubated patients. The Thai Government then implemented a lockdown to mitigate the outbreak magnitude and prevent cases from overwhelming the healthcare system. This study aimed to model the severity of the outbreak over the following months by different levels of lockdown effectiveness. Secondary analysis was performed on data primarily obtained from the Ministry of Health; the data were analyzed using both the deterministic compartmental model and the system dynamics model. The model was calibrated against the number of daily cases in Greater Bangkok during June–July 2021. We then assessed the outcomes (daily cases, daily deaths, and intubated patients) according to hypothetical lockdowns of varying effectiveness and duration. The findings revealed that lockdown measures could reduce and delay the peak of COVID-19 cases and deaths. A two-month lockdown with 60% effectiveness in the reduction in reproduction number caused the lowest number of cases, deaths, and intubated patients, with a peak about one-fifth of the size of a no-lockdown peak. The two-month lockdown policy also delayed the peak until after December, while in the context of a one-month lockdown, cases peaked during the end of September to early December (depending on the varying degrees of lockdown effectiveness in the reduction in reproduction number). In other words, the implementation of a lockdown policy did not mean the end of the outbreak, but it helped delay the peak. In this sense, implementing a lockdown helped to buy time for the healthcare system to recover and better prepare for any future outbreaks. We recommend further studies that explore the impact of lockdown measures at a sub-provincial level, and examine the impact of lockdowns on parameters not directly related to the spread of disease, such as quality of life and economic implications for individuals and society.
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spelling pubmed-86573862021-12-10 Predicted Impact of the Lockdown Measure in Response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Greater Bangkok, Thailand, 2021 Uansri, Sonvanee Tuangratananon, Titiporn Phaiyarom, Mathudara Rajatanavin, Nattadhanai Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong Jaruwanno, Warisara Int J Environ Res Public Health Article In mid-2021, Thailand faced a fourth wave of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) predominantly fueled by the Delta and Alpha variants. The number of cases and deaths rose exponentially, alongside a sharp increase in hospitalizations and intubated patients. The Thai Government then implemented a lockdown to mitigate the outbreak magnitude and prevent cases from overwhelming the healthcare system. This study aimed to model the severity of the outbreak over the following months by different levels of lockdown effectiveness. Secondary analysis was performed on data primarily obtained from the Ministry of Health; the data were analyzed using both the deterministic compartmental model and the system dynamics model. The model was calibrated against the number of daily cases in Greater Bangkok during June–July 2021. We then assessed the outcomes (daily cases, daily deaths, and intubated patients) according to hypothetical lockdowns of varying effectiveness and duration. The findings revealed that lockdown measures could reduce and delay the peak of COVID-19 cases and deaths. A two-month lockdown with 60% effectiveness in the reduction in reproduction number caused the lowest number of cases, deaths, and intubated patients, with a peak about one-fifth of the size of a no-lockdown peak. The two-month lockdown policy also delayed the peak until after December, while in the context of a one-month lockdown, cases peaked during the end of September to early December (depending on the varying degrees of lockdown effectiveness in the reduction in reproduction number). In other words, the implementation of a lockdown policy did not mean the end of the outbreak, but it helped delay the peak. In this sense, implementing a lockdown helped to buy time for the healthcare system to recover and better prepare for any future outbreaks. We recommend further studies that explore the impact of lockdown measures at a sub-provincial level, and examine the impact of lockdowns on parameters not directly related to the spread of disease, such as quality of life and economic implications for individuals and society. MDPI 2021-12-05 /pmc/articles/PMC8657386/ /pubmed/34886542 http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182312816 Text en © 2021 by the authors. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
spellingShingle Article
Uansri, Sonvanee
Tuangratananon, Titiporn
Phaiyarom, Mathudara
Rajatanavin, Nattadhanai
Suphanchaimat, Rapeepong
Jaruwanno, Warisara
Predicted Impact of the Lockdown Measure in Response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Greater Bangkok, Thailand, 2021
title Predicted Impact of the Lockdown Measure in Response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Greater Bangkok, Thailand, 2021
title_full Predicted Impact of the Lockdown Measure in Response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Greater Bangkok, Thailand, 2021
title_fullStr Predicted Impact of the Lockdown Measure in Response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Greater Bangkok, Thailand, 2021
title_full_unstemmed Predicted Impact of the Lockdown Measure in Response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Greater Bangkok, Thailand, 2021
title_short Predicted Impact of the Lockdown Measure in Response to Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Greater Bangkok, Thailand, 2021
title_sort predicted impact of the lockdown measure in response to coronavirus disease 2019 (covid-19) in greater bangkok, thailand, 2021
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8657386/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34886542
http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/ijerph182312816
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