Identification of an Autophagy-Related Gene Signature for the Prediction of Prognosis in Early-Stage Colorectal Cancer

Purpose: A certain number of early-stage colorectal cancer (CRC) patients suffer tumor recurrence after initial curative resection. In this context, an effective prognostic biomarker model is constantly in need. Autophagy exhibits a dual role in tumorigenesis. Our study aims to develop an autophagy-related gene (ATG) signature-based on high-throughput data analysis for disease-free survival (DFS) prognosis of patients with stage I/II CRC. Methods: Gene expression profiles and clinical information of CRC patients extracted from four public datasets were distributed to discovery and training cohort (GSE39582), validation cohort (TCGA CRC, n = 624), and meta-validation cohort (GSE37892 and GSE14333, n = 420). Autophagy genes significantly associated with prognosis were identified. Results: Among 655 autophagy-related genes, a 10-gene ATG signature, which was significantly associated with DFS in the training cohort (HR, 2.76[1.56–4.82]; p = 2.06 × 10–4), was constructed. The ATG signature, stratifying patients into high and low autophagy risk groups, was validated in the validation (HR, 2.29[1.15–4.55]; p = 1.5 × 10–2) and meta-validation cohorts (HR, 2.5[1.03–6.06]; p = 3.63 × 10–2) and proved to be prognostic in a multivariate analysis. Functional analysis revealed enrichment of several immune/inflammatory pathways in the high autophagy risk group, where increased infiltration of T regulatory cells (Tregs) and decreased infiltration of M1 macrophages were observed. Conclusion: Our study established a prognostic ATG signature that effectively predicted DFS for early-stage CRC patients. Meanwhile, the study also revealed the possible relationship among autophagy process, immune/inflammatory response, and tumorigenesis.