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Modeling for a Smallpox-vaccination Policy against Possible Bioterrorism in Japan: The Impact of Long-lasting Vaccinal Immunity

BACKGROUND: There has been concern that variola virus might be held clandestinely elsewhere. Through constructing mathematical model based on the detailed epidemiologic data, we focused on simulating the various possible scenarios arising from a bioterrorist attack whereby smallpox virus was introdu...

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Autores principales: Nishiura, Hiroshi, Tang, I. Ming
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Japan Epidemiological Association 2005
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8660566/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15162977
http://dx.doi.org/10.2188/jea.14.41
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author Nishiura, Hiroshi
Tang, I. Ming
author_facet Nishiura, Hiroshi
Tang, I. Ming
author_sort Nishiura, Hiroshi
collection PubMed
description BACKGROUND: There has been concern that variola virus might be held clandestinely elsewhere. Through constructing mathematical model based on the detailed epidemiologic data, we focused on simulating the various possible scenarios arising from a bioterrorist attack whereby smallpox virus was introduced into Japan, and sought to develop the most effective way of nationwide vaccination policy based on the theory of residual immunity. METHOD: The analysis is based on a deterministic mathematical model which predicted the epidemiologic outcome while simultaneously evaluating the effect of any specified control strategy of the smallpox epidemic. To clarify the required amount of vaccines, we performed mathematical analysis for hypothetical population to acquire herd immunity based on long-lasting vaccinal immunity. RESULTS: It is demonstrated that the crude size of the potential epidemic could be greatly affected by possible level of residual immunity. The results also suggest the possibility to develop optimal distribution of nationwide vaccination according to the immune status. The prevalence at 50th day among population without immunity in our simulation would be approximately 405 times greater than expected population with residual immunity, and required amount of vaccines for equal distribution would be 3.13 times more than optimal distribution. CONCLUSION: The mathematical model formulated could determine the vaccination priority based on the real status of immunity which required much less amount of vaccinations than would be calculated using an equal distribution program. It is therefore crucial to determine the real immunity status of the population via epidemiologic studies.
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spelling pubmed-86605662021-12-23 Modeling for a Smallpox-vaccination Policy against Possible Bioterrorism in Japan: The Impact of Long-lasting Vaccinal Immunity Nishiura, Hiroshi Tang, I. Ming J Epidemiol Original Article BACKGROUND: There has been concern that variola virus might be held clandestinely elsewhere. Through constructing mathematical model based on the detailed epidemiologic data, we focused on simulating the various possible scenarios arising from a bioterrorist attack whereby smallpox virus was introduced into Japan, and sought to develop the most effective way of nationwide vaccination policy based on the theory of residual immunity. METHOD: The analysis is based on a deterministic mathematical model which predicted the epidemiologic outcome while simultaneously evaluating the effect of any specified control strategy of the smallpox epidemic. To clarify the required amount of vaccines, we performed mathematical analysis for hypothetical population to acquire herd immunity based on long-lasting vaccinal immunity. RESULTS: It is demonstrated that the crude size of the potential epidemic could be greatly affected by possible level of residual immunity. The results also suggest the possibility to develop optimal distribution of nationwide vaccination according to the immune status. The prevalence at 50th day among population without immunity in our simulation would be approximately 405 times greater than expected population with residual immunity, and required amount of vaccines for equal distribution would be 3.13 times more than optimal distribution. CONCLUSION: The mathematical model formulated could determine the vaccination priority based on the real status of immunity which required much less amount of vaccinations than would be calculated using an equal distribution program. It is therefore crucial to determine the real immunity status of the population via epidemiologic studies. Japan Epidemiological Association 2005-03-18 /pmc/articles/PMC8660566/ /pubmed/15162977 http://dx.doi.org/10.2188/jea.14.41 Text en © 2004 Japan Epidemiological Association. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed under the terms of Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
spellingShingle Original Article
Nishiura, Hiroshi
Tang, I. Ming
Modeling for a Smallpox-vaccination Policy against Possible Bioterrorism in Japan: The Impact of Long-lasting Vaccinal Immunity
title Modeling for a Smallpox-vaccination Policy against Possible Bioterrorism in Japan: The Impact of Long-lasting Vaccinal Immunity
title_full Modeling for a Smallpox-vaccination Policy against Possible Bioterrorism in Japan: The Impact of Long-lasting Vaccinal Immunity
title_fullStr Modeling for a Smallpox-vaccination Policy against Possible Bioterrorism in Japan: The Impact of Long-lasting Vaccinal Immunity
title_full_unstemmed Modeling for a Smallpox-vaccination Policy against Possible Bioterrorism in Japan: The Impact of Long-lasting Vaccinal Immunity
title_short Modeling for a Smallpox-vaccination Policy against Possible Bioterrorism in Japan: The Impact of Long-lasting Vaccinal Immunity
title_sort modeling for a smallpox-vaccination policy against possible bioterrorism in japan: the impact of long-lasting vaccinal immunity
topic Original Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8660566/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15162977
http://dx.doi.org/10.2188/jea.14.41
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