Post COVID-19 teleworking and car use intentions. Evidence from large scale GPS-tracking and survey data in the Netherlands

This study examines the changes in teleworking during the lockdown in April 2020 and the intention to change commuting behaviour after COVID-19 in the Netherlands. Survey data of 1,515 Dutch employees and large-scale smartphone-based GPS-data of the same participants before and during COVID-19 is used. The probability of increasing teleworking during COVID-19 is estimated using an ordinal logistic regression model, considering sociodemographic characteristics, the initial travel behaviour and the initial work situation as determining factors. Two binary logistic regression models are developed to analyse whether employees expect to continue teleworking after the COVID-19 pandemic and whether they will decrease car use for commuting. Both models consider teleworking and car use intentions in the context of behavioural changes during COVID-19. The main factors that influenced teleworking during the lockdown are job characteristics. Office workers and teaching staff were more likely to increase the amount of time spent working from home and showed a higher chance of changes in daily commuting routines. After COVID-19, office workers expect to increase teleworking. The results suggest that employees with a relatively large change in teleworking during the early lockdown expect to work from home more frequently after COVID-19. This effect is strengthened further by positive experiences with teleworking (i.e. more pleasure and higher productivity) and supporting policy measures by the employer, such as sufficient ICT facilities. The main conclusion related to intended changes in mode choice is that car use for commuting is expected to decrease after COVID-19, mostly because of an increase in teleworking.