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On the link between temperature and regional COVID‐19 severity: Evidence from Italy
This study analyzes the link between temperature and COVID‐19 incidence in a sample of Italian regions during the period that covers the first epidemic wave of 2020. To that end, Bayesian model averaging techniques are used to analyze the relevance of temperature together with a set of additional cl...
Autores principales: | , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
John Wiley and Sons Inc.
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8661898/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12472 |
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author | Rios, Vicente Gianmoena, Lisa |
author_facet | Rios, Vicente Gianmoena, Lisa |
author_sort | Rios, Vicente |
collection | PubMed |
description | This study analyzes the link between temperature and COVID‐19 incidence in a sample of Italian regions during the period that covers the first epidemic wave of 2020. To that end, Bayesian model averaging techniques are used to analyze the relevance of temperature together with a set of additional climatic, demographic, social, and health policy factors. The robustness of individual predictors is measured through posterior inclusion probabilities. The empirical analysis provides conclusive evidence on the role played by temperature given that it appears as one of the most relevant determinants reducing regional coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) severity. The strong negative link observed in our baseline analysis is robust to the specification of priors, the scale of analysis, the correction of measurement errors in the data due to under‐reporting, the time window considered, and the inclusion of spatial effects in the model. In a second step, we compute relative importance metrics that decompose the variability explained by the model. We find that cross‐regional temperature differentials explain a large share of the observed variation on the number of infections. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8661898 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | John Wiley and Sons Inc. |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-86618982021-12-10 On the link between temperature and regional COVID‐19 severity: Evidence from Italy Rios, Vicente Gianmoena, Lisa Regional Science Policy & Practice Original Articles This study analyzes the link between temperature and COVID‐19 incidence in a sample of Italian regions during the period that covers the first epidemic wave of 2020. To that end, Bayesian model averaging techniques are used to analyze the relevance of temperature together with a set of additional climatic, demographic, social, and health policy factors. The robustness of individual predictors is measured through posterior inclusion probabilities. The empirical analysis provides conclusive evidence on the role played by temperature given that it appears as one of the most relevant determinants reducing regional coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19) severity. The strong negative link observed in our baseline analysis is robust to the specification of priors, the scale of analysis, the correction of measurement errors in the data due to under‐reporting, the time window considered, and the inclusion of spatial effects in the model. In a second step, we compute relative importance metrics that decompose the variability explained by the model. We find that cross‐regional temperature differentials explain a large share of the observed variation on the number of infections. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021-10-11 2021-11 /pmc/articles/PMC8661898/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12472 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Regional Science Policy & Practice published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Regional Science Association International. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes. |
spellingShingle | Original Articles Rios, Vicente Gianmoena, Lisa On the link between temperature and regional COVID‐19 severity: Evidence from Italy |
title | On the link between temperature and regional COVID‐19 severity: Evidence from Italy |
title_full | On the link between temperature and regional COVID‐19 severity: Evidence from Italy |
title_fullStr | On the link between temperature and regional COVID‐19 severity: Evidence from Italy |
title_full_unstemmed | On the link between temperature and regional COVID‐19 severity: Evidence from Italy |
title_short | On the link between temperature and regional COVID‐19 severity: Evidence from Italy |
title_sort | on the link between temperature and regional covid‐19 severity: evidence from italy |
topic | Original Articles |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8661898/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12472 |
work_keys_str_mv | AT riosvicente onthelinkbetweentemperatureandregionalcovid19severityevidencefromitaly AT gianmoenalisa onthelinkbetweentemperatureandregionalcovid19severityevidencefromitaly |