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Understanding poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: Implications for the likely impact of COVID‐19

We aim at identifying vulnerable groups that face a higher risk of falling into poverty due to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Applying a synthetic panel data approach, our analysis of poverty and vulnerability transitions during the pre‐COVID period shows not only a high rate of poverty persistence in Ethio...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh, Tarp, Finn
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8662255/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34908903
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rode.12841
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author Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh
Tarp, Finn
author_facet Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh
Tarp, Finn
author_sort Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh
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description We aim at identifying vulnerable groups that face a higher risk of falling into poverty due to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Applying a synthetic panel data approach, our analysis of poverty and vulnerability transitions during the pre‐COVID period shows not only a high rate of poverty persistence in Ethiopia but also a high probability of moving from vulnerable nonpoor status to poor status. Given the observed persistence of poverty and greater risk of downward mobility, even in the pre‐COVID period, it is highly likely that poverty persistence and downward mobility will be aggravated during the current pandemic. A detailed poverty profiling exercise shows that households where the household head is less educated, engaged in the service sector, self‐employed, and a domestic worker are population segments with a high rate of downward mobility. As the emerging evidence on the socioeconomic impact of COVID shows, these segments of the population are also the ones relatively more affected by the pandemic. Overall, the pandemic is likely to result in a serious setback to the progress made in poverty reduction in Ethiopia. Poverty reduction policies should thus target not only the existing poor but also the vulnerable nonpoor.
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spelling pubmed-86622552021-12-10 Understanding poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: Implications for the likely impact of COVID‐19 Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh Tarp, Finn Rev Dev Econ Special Symposium We aim at identifying vulnerable groups that face a higher risk of falling into poverty due to the COVID‐19 pandemic. Applying a synthetic panel data approach, our analysis of poverty and vulnerability transitions during the pre‐COVID period shows not only a high rate of poverty persistence in Ethiopia but also a high probability of moving from vulnerable nonpoor status to poor status. Given the observed persistence of poverty and greater risk of downward mobility, even in the pre‐COVID period, it is highly likely that poverty persistence and downward mobility will be aggravated during the current pandemic. A detailed poverty profiling exercise shows that households where the household head is less educated, engaged in the service sector, self‐employed, and a domestic worker are population segments with a high rate of downward mobility. As the emerging evidence on the socioeconomic impact of COVID shows, these segments of the population are also the ones relatively more affected by the pandemic. Overall, the pandemic is likely to result in a serious setback to the progress made in poverty reduction in Ethiopia. Poverty reduction policies should thus target not only the existing poor but also the vulnerable nonpoor. John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2021-11-11 2021-11 /pmc/articles/PMC8662255/ /pubmed/34908903 http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rode.12841 Text en © 2021 The Authors. Review of Development Economics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and is not used for commercial purposes.
spellingShingle Special Symposium
Mekasha, Tseday Jemaneh
Tarp, Finn
Understanding poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: Implications for the likely impact of COVID‐19
title Understanding poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: Implications for the likely impact of COVID‐19
title_full Understanding poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: Implications for the likely impact of COVID‐19
title_fullStr Understanding poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: Implications for the likely impact of COVID‐19
title_full_unstemmed Understanding poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: Implications for the likely impact of COVID‐19
title_short Understanding poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: Implications for the likely impact of COVID‐19
title_sort understanding poverty dynamics in ethiopia: implications for the likely impact of covid‐19
topic Special Symposium
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8662255/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34908903
http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/rode.12841
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