Modified Shock Index as an Indicator for Prognosis Among Sepsis Patients With and Without Comorbidities Presenting to the Emergency Department

Objectives: Modified shock index (MSI) is a simple bedside tool used in the emergency department. There are a few studies suggesting MSI as a good prognostic indicator than shock index in sepsis patients. However, there is not enough research emphasizing the role of MSI in patients with comorbidities. Hence, this study aims to assess the predictive validity of MSI in predicting the prognosis of sepsis patients with and without co-morbidities. Methods: From January to December 2020, a prospective observational study was conducted in a tertiary care teaching hospital. Patients with sepsis diagnosed based on systemic inflammatory response syndrome criteria and quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) were included. The need for mechanical ventilation and step down from the intensive care unit were outcome variables, MSI was considered as a predictor variable, and co-morbidities as an explanatory variable. Results: Among people with co-morbidities, the MSI value on arrival to the emergency department had fair predictive validity in predicting the need for mechanical ventilation after 24 hours, as indicated by the area under the curve of 0.749 (95% CI: 0.600-0.897; p-value = 0.002) and a sensitivity of 68.75% in predicting mechanical ventilation after 24 hours (MSI ≥ 1.59). Among people without co-morbidities, the MSI value on arrival to the emergency department had fair predictive validity in predicting the need for mechanical ventilation after 24 hours, as indicated by the area under the curve of 0.879 (95% CI: 0.770-0.988; p-value <0.001) and a sensitivity of 83.33% in predicting the need for mechanical ventilation after 24 hours (MSI ≥ 1.67). Conclusion: MSI can be used as an indicator in predicting the prognosis of sepsis patients in the emergency department. A simple bedside calculation of the MSI can indicate the need for mechanical ventilation and step down from the intensive care unit after 24 hours in patients with co-morbidities and without co-morbidities.