Analyzing the impacts of climate change on rice supply in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia

Differing from other main grains, rice is mainly fed by humans. This means that rice is important for human food security. Rice also has a significant contribution to employment and the economy, especially in developing countries. Owing to this, understanding the negative impacts of climate change on rice supply is a critical issue. This study uses the system dynamics modeling to investigate the impacts of climate change on three factors: rice yield, harvested areas, and rice production in West Nusa Tenggara (WNT), Indonesia throughout this century. In doing so, this study incorporates production and climate factors in assessing the impacts of climate change on rice supply. Although climate change may allow a small increase in harvested areas, decreases in rice yield will likely outweigh this. Owing to this, policymakers should not rely on the farming land expansion. Rather, policymakers should enhance the research and development of heat-tolerant rice varieties to anticipate the negative impacts of climate change on rice supply. This study also claims that despite the negative impacts of climate change on rice production, WNT can fulfill its local rice demand under a changing climate. Nevertheless, WNT cannot provide a sufficient rice for its neighboring provinces: Bali and East Nusa Tenggara.