Association of COVID-19 mortality with COVID-19 vaccination rates in Rhineland-Palatinate (Germany) from calendar week 1 to 20 in the year 2021: a registry-based analysis

Vaccination is among the measures implemented by authorities to control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, real-world evidence of population-level effects of vaccination campaigns against COVID-19 are required to confirm that positive results from clinical trials translate into positive public health outcomes. Since the age group 80 + years is most at risk for severe COVID-19 disease progression, this group was prioritized during vaccine rollout in Germany. Based on comprehensive vaccination data from the German federal state of Rhineland-Palatinate for calendar week 1–20 in the year 2021, we calculated sex- and age-specific vaccination coverage. Furthermore, we calculated the proportion of weekly COVID-19 fatalities and reported SARS-CoV-2 infections formed by each age group. Vaccination coverage in the age group 80 + years increased to a level of 80% (men) and 75% (women). Increasing vaccination coverage coincided with a reduction in the age group’s proportion of COVID-19 fatalities. In multivariable logistic regression, vaccination coverage was associated both with a reduction in an age-group’s proportion of COVID-19 fatalities [odds ratio (OR) per 5 percentage points = 0.89, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.82–0.96, p = 0.0013] and of reported SARS-CoV-2 infections (OR per 5 percentage points = 0.82, 95% CI 0.76–0.88, p < 0.0001). The results are consistent with a protective effect afforded by the vaccination campaign against severe COVID-19 disease in the oldest age group. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10654-021-00825-6.