Clinical Prediction Models for Hepatitis B Virus-related Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure: A Technical Report

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: It is critical but challenging to predict the prognosis of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF). This study systematically summarized and evaluated the quality and performance of available clinical prediction models (CPMs). METHODS: A keyword search of articles on HBV-ACLF CPMs published in PubMed from January 1995 to April 2020 was performed. Both the quality and performance of the CPMs were assessed. RESULTS: Fifty-two CPMs were identified, of which 31 were HBV-ACLF specific. The modeling data were mostly derived from retrospective (83.87%) and single-center (96.77%) cohorts, with sample sizes ranging from 46 to 1,202. Three-month mortality was the most common endpoint. The Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver consensus (51.92%) and Chinese Medical Association liver failure guidelines (40.38%) were commonly used for HBV-ACLF diagnosis. Serum bilirubin (67.74%), the international normalized ratio (54.84%), and hepatic encephalopathy (51.61%) were the most frequent variables used in models. Model discrimination was commonly evaluated (88.46%), but model calibration was seldom performed. The model for end-stage liver disease score was the most widely used (84.62%); however, varying performance was reported among the studies. CONCLUSIONS: Substantial limitations lie in the quality of HBV-ACLF-specific CPMs. Disease severity of study populations may impact model performance. The clinical utility of CPMs in predicting short-term prognosis of HBV-ACLF remains to be undefined.