The use of a predictive threat analysis to propose revisions to existing risk assessments for precursor chemicals used in the manufacture of home-made explosives (HME)

Improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have generated over 137,000 civilian casualties in the past decade, more than any other explosive weapon system in the same period with a far-reaching impact on personal security freedoms across 50 affected countries. The aim of this paper is to consolidate existing risk management processes to control the availability of chemical precursors used in the manufacture of home-made explosives (HME) and to recommend global standards for market regulations in their composition, sale and use. This will be achieved by assessing the current regional regulations for three common chemical precursors (hydrogen peroxide, ammonium nitrate and potassium chlorate), and proposing a risk management process to identify key precursor chemicals that require greater control.