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Using a climate attribution statistic to inform judgments about changing fisheries sustainability
Sustainability—maintaining catches within the historical range of socially and ecologically acceptable values—is key to fisheries success. Climate change may rapidly threaten sustainability, and recognizing these instances is important for effective climate adaptation. Here, we present one approach...
Autores principales: | , , , , , , |
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Formato: | Online Artículo Texto |
Lenguaje: | English |
Publicado: |
Nature Publishing Group UK
2021
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Materias: | |
Acceso en línea: | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8671533/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34907260 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03405-6 |
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author | Litzow, Michael A. Malick, Michael J. Abookire, Alisa A. Duffy-Anderson, Janet Laurel, Benjamin J. Ressler, Patrick H. Rogers, Lauren A. |
author_facet | Litzow, Michael A. Malick, Michael J. Abookire, Alisa A. Duffy-Anderson, Janet Laurel, Benjamin J. Ressler, Patrick H. Rogers, Lauren A. |
author_sort | Litzow, Michael A. |
collection | PubMed |
description | Sustainability—maintaining catches within the historical range of socially and ecologically acceptable values—is key to fisheries success. Climate change may rapidly threaten sustainability, and recognizing these instances is important for effective climate adaptation. Here, we present one approach for evaluating changing sustainability under a changing climate. We use Bayesian regression models to compare fish population processes under historical climate norms and emerging anthropogenic extremes. To define anthropogenic extremes we use the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR), which estimates the proportion of risk for extreme ocean temperatures that can be attributed to human influence. We illustrate our approach with estimates of recruitment (production of young fish, a key determinant of sustainability) for two exploited fishes (Pacific cod Gadus macrocephalus and walleye pollock G. chalcogrammus) in a rapidly warming ecosystem, the Gulf of Alaska. We show that recruitment distributions for both species have shifted towards zero during anthropogenic climate extremes. Predictions based on the projected incidence of anthropogenic temperature extremes indicate that expected recruitment, and therefore fisheries sustainability, is markedly lower in the current climate than during recent decades. Using FAR to analyze changing population processes may help fisheries managers and stakeholders to recognize situations when historical sustainability expectations should be reevaluated. |
format | Online Article Text |
id | pubmed-8671533 |
institution | National Center for Biotechnology Information |
language | English |
publishDate | 2021 |
publisher | Nature Publishing Group UK |
record_format | MEDLINE/PubMed |
spelling | pubmed-86715332021-12-16 Using a climate attribution statistic to inform judgments about changing fisheries sustainability Litzow, Michael A. Malick, Michael J. Abookire, Alisa A. Duffy-Anderson, Janet Laurel, Benjamin J. Ressler, Patrick H. Rogers, Lauren A. Sci Rep Article Sustainability—maintaining catches within the historical range of socially and ecologically acceptable values—is key to fisheries success. Climate change may rapidly threaten sustainability, and recognizing these instances is important for effective climate adaptation. Here, we present one approach for evaluating changing sustainability under a changing climate. We use Bayesian regression models to compare fish population processes under historical climate norms and emerging anthropogenic extremes. To define anthropogenic extremes we use the Fraction of Attributable Risk (FAR), which estimates the proportion of risk for extreme ocean temperatures that can be attributed to human influence. We illustrate our approach with estimates of recruitment (production of young fish, a key determinant of sustainability) for two exploited fishes (Pacific cod Gadus macrocephalus and walleye pollock G. chalcogrammus) in a rapidly warming ecosystem, the Gulf of Alaska. We show that recruitment distributions for both species have shifted towards zero during anthropogenic climate extremes. Predictions based on the projected incidence of anthropogenic temperature extremes indicate that expected recruitment, and therefore fisheries sustainability, is markedly lower in the current climate than during recent decades. Using FAR to analyze changing population processes may help fisheries managers and stakeholders to recognize situations when historical sustainability expectations should be reevaluated. Nature Publishing Group UK 2021-12-14 /pmc/articles/PMC8671533/ /pubmed/34907260 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03405-6 Text en © This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the US; foreign copyright protection may apply 2021 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/) . |
spellingShingle | Article Litzow, Michael A. Malick, Michael J. Abookire, Alisa A. Duffy-Anderson, Janet Laurel, Benjamin J. Ressler, Patrick H. Rogers, Lauren A. Using a climate attribution statistic to inform judgments about changing fisheries sustainability |
title | Using a climate attribution statistic to inform judgments about changing fisheries sustainability |
title_full | Using a climate attribution statistic to inform judgments about changing fisheries sustainability |
title_fullStr | Using a climate attribution statistic to inform judgments about changing fisheries sustainability |
title_full_unstemmed | Using a climate attribution statistic to inform judgments about changing fisheries sustainability |
title_short | Using a climate attribution statistic to inform judgments about changing fisheries sustainability |
title_sort | using a climate attribution statistic to inform judgments about changing fisheries sustainability |
topic | Article |
url | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8671533/ https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/34907260 http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-03405-6 |
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