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Socially structured model for COVID-19 pandemic: design and evaluation of control measures

Governments around the world are taking different measures to deal with the novel severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. In this sense, realistic mathematical models are important tools to explore the effect of different control strategies. In this work, we developed an agent-based model for COV...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Simoy, Mario Ignacio, Aparicio, Juan Pablo
Formato: Online Artículo Texto
Lenguaje:English
Publicado: Springer International Publishing 2021
Materias:
Acceso en línea:https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8672861/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40314-021-01705-1
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author Simoy, Mario Ignacio
Aparicio, Juan Pablo
author_facet Simoy, Mario Ignacio
Aparicio, Juan Pablo
author_sort Simoy, Mario Ignacio
collection PubMed
description Governments around the world are taking different measures to deal with the novel severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. In this sense, realistic mathematical models are important tools to explore the effect of different control strategies. In this work, we developed an agent-based model for COVID-19 disease dynamics which incorporates a basic social structure to simulate different control strategies in mid-size cities. We evaluated the impact of combinations of social distancing measures, such as contact tracing/case isolation, school closures and partial lockdowns for workplaces on the evolution of hospital beds occupancy. The contact tracing/case isolation modeled in most cases cannot prevent hospital beds saturation by itself. Our results suggest that schools, without strong social distancing measures, may be an important driver of the epidemic. Household and workplace people distribution is also an important factor to consider when studying the impact of control measures.
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spelling pubmed-86728612021-12-15 Socially structured model for COVID-19 pandemic: design and evaluation of control measures Simoy, Mario Ignacio Aparicio, Juan Pablo Comp. Appl. Math. Article Governments around the world are taking different measures to deal with the novel severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. In this sense, realistic mathematical models are important tools to explore the effect of different control strategies. In this work, we developed an agent-based model for COVID-19 disease dynamics which incorporates a basic social structure to simulate different control strategies in mid-size cities. We evaluated the impact of combinations of social distancing measures, such as contact tracing/case isolation, school closures and partial lockdowns for workplaces on the evolution of hospital beds occupancy. The contact tracing/case isolation modeled in most cases cannot prevent hospital beds saturation by itself. Our results suggest that schools, without strong social distancing measures, may be an important driver of the epidemic. Household and workplace people distribution is also an important factor to consider when studying the impact of control measures. Springer International Publishing 2021-12-15 2022 /pmc/articles/PMC8672861/ http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40314-021-01705-1 Text en © The Author(s) under exclusive licence to Sociedade Brasileira de Matemática Aplicada e Computacional 2021 This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
spellingShingle Article
Simoy, Mario Ignacio
Aparicio, Juan Pablo
Socially structured model for COVID-19 pandemic: design and evaluation of control measures
title Socially structured model for COVID-19 pandemic: design and evaluation of control measures
title_full Socially structured model for COVID-19 pandemic: design and evaluation of control measures
title_fullStr Socially structured model for COVID-19 pandemic: design and evaluation of control measures
title_full_unstemmed Socially structured model for COVID-19 pandemic: design and evaluation of control measures
title_short Socially structured model for COVID-19 pandemic: design and evaluation of control measures
title_sort socially structured model for covid-19 pandemic: design and evaluation of control measures
topic Article
url https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8672861/
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s40314-021-01705-1
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