Modeling and simulation of microblog-based public health emergency-associated public opinion communication

With the advent of the era of “we media,” many people's opinions have become easily accessible. Public health emergencies have always been an important aspect of public opinion exchange and emotional communication. In view of this sudden group panic, public opinion cannot be effectively monitored, controlled or guided. This makes it easy to amplify the beliefs and irrationality of social emotions, that threaten social security and stability. Considering the important role of opinion leaders in micro-blogs and users’ interest in micro-blog information, a SIR model of public opinion propagation is constructed based on the novel coronavirus pneumonia model and micro-blog's public health emergencies information. The parameters of the model are calculated by combining the actual crawl data from the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic period, and the trends in the evolution of public opinion are simulated by MATLAB. The simulation results are consistent with the actual development of public opinion dissemination, which shows the effectiveness of the model. These research findings can help the government understand the principles that guide the propagation of public opinion and advise an appropriate time to control and correctly guide public opinion.